................................................................................................................. counter
!!! W E L C O M E !!!
In INDIA, people generally relate to stock market as “EASY MONEY” or “SATTA BAZAAR”. For them it’s purely a GAME or matter of sheer LUCK and nothing more than that. But seldom do they know, by following certain PRINCIPLES and taking INFORMED decision, this same platform has the power to take them from rags to riches. No doubt, it has a certain amount of RISK attached to it. But every business or investment has it. What more, the Finance Ministry has already made the long term capital gain as TAX FREE whereas the short term capital gain is taxed at merely 10%. On the economic front, India’s GDP is growing and is expected to grow at scorching pace of more than 8%. Unfortunately, even today our market is being ruled and dominated by FIRANGI’s money. But I can see, the day is not far when our general PUBLIC will change its perception and start putting MOST of their savings in equities as an ** Investment **.
Remember, "K N O W L E D G E" and "P A T I E N C E" are the key to success.
Page copy protected against web site content infringement by Copyscape
AddThis Social Bookmark Button Add to Technorati Favorites Join My Community at MyBloglog! ...<< Top Blogs >>
SAARTHI

Sensex (LIVE- Intraday)

Sensex (LIVE- Intraday)

Saturday, January 10, 2009

STOCK WATCH

Vivimed Labs (40.00) is a speciality chemical manufacturer catering to segments including oral care, sun care, skin care, hair care, natural extracts, preservatives, anti microbial, anti oxidants, anti-aging molecule etc. Infact it is world’s 2nd largest manufacturer of Triclosan - an antibacterial used for oral care and one of the top three companies for Avis – a chemical which improves UV absorbing ability of Sunscreen. Last year it acquired 100% stake in M/s James Robinson,UK which is an international manufacturer and supplier of speciality chemicals used in hair dyes, pharmaceuticals and photographic films/prints to ophthalmic sunglasses. Recently, company has decided to acquire Har-met International Inc a small importer of pharmaceutical & cosmetic product, based in USA. Organically as well company has been expanding its capacity and has chalked out Greenfield expansion plan in Uttaranchal and Hyderabad. Presently it boast of having five manufacturing facilities spread across Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh & Uttaranchal. Considering its Q1FY09 nos and acquisition of UK company, company is estimated to report a consolidated sales of more than Rs 225 cr and net profit of Rs 17 cr. This leads to an EPS of Rs 18 on current equity of Rs 9.40 cr. It has raised nearly 60 cr thru FCCB route which may not get converted into equity considering the CMP. Accumulate between Rs 30 ~ 40 levels to get handsome gain over long term.

Being the Asia’s largest manufacturer of air compressors, Elgi Equipment (30.00) is involved with the design, development and production of exhaustive range of electric and diesel powered, centrifugal, reciprocating, borewell, railway air compressors etc. As air compressors are used in a wide range of applications, company caters to almost all sectors of industry. Besides it also derives 20% revenue from providing total service station solutions through the supply of a range of equipment and tools for two, three & four wheelers. Ironically company deals in or manufactures more than 128 equipments generally required by full-fledged garage. However to concentrate on each business segment company is hiving off its automotive equipment business into a separate wholly owned subsidiary called ATS-Elgi Ltd. Of late to cash on its rich experience company also started offering end to end mechanical engineering solutions and contract manufacturing services of precision engineered part to clients who are looking for cost-effective, subcontracting solution. It is also looking to increase it global presence for which it has formed a subsidiary in China and has also entered into joint venture with M/s. J P Sauer & Sohn, Germany for manufacturing air compressors. For FY09 it is expected to report a topline of Rs 450 cr and bottomline of Rs 35 cr i.e. EPS of Rs 6 on equity of Rs 6.30 cr having face value of Rs 1/- per share. A screaming buy at current levels.

Part of B M Thapar group, Greaves Cotton (75.00) is enaged in production of diesel/petrol/LPG engines for power generation, agro equipment & atumotive apart from manufacturing gensets, agro equipment and construction equipment. Besides, it is also engaged in marketing high technology systems for marine, aviation and electronic applications. In 2007, to increase its presence in global market it acquired, Bukh Farymann Diesel GmbH (renamed as Greaves Farymann Diesel GmbH) which is engaged in the manufacture and marketing of single cylinder diesel engines. However it is reporting loss due to weak economic condition in US & Europe. On the other hand Greaves Cotton is also facing lower demand in India for its automotive engine due to slowdown in 3 wheeler segment. But its infrastructure equipments business is doing exceedingly well. To keep the momentum going company has been expanding its product portfolio by introducing new products, tapping new markets and creating new manufacturing facilities. It has set up new units at Aurangabad, Pune and Gummidipoondi. Moreover the recent fall in all the commodity prices will ease some pressure on input cost. Although it may again report a sharp decline in NP for FY09 still it is estimated to clock a turnover of Rs 1350 cr and PAT of Rs 75 cr which leads an EPS of Rs 15 on equity of Rs 48.80 cr. At current EV of Rs 400 cr its worth a buy.

Being a 67% subsidiary of Honda Motor Co. Japan, Honda Siel (150.00) is the undisputed leader in the field of portable generators with its “HONDA” brand commanding more than 70% market share. Infact company boasts of launching India’s first LPG run gensets which is doing extremely well along with its super silent series. For the first time company has achieved the sales volume of over 100,000 Units (112,517 units) in domestic markets for FY08. At the same time to reduce the input cost, company has indigenised few of the critical parts of engine which it use to import earlier. Thus it has successfully reduced the import content to 19% from 22% and is further slated to bring it down to 15% in the current year. Moreover to consolidate the manufacturing operations company is shifting its Rudrapur (Uttaranchal) plant to its factory at Greater Noida in Uttar Pradesh. Although it may disrupt the production in short term but surely will beneficial in long term. Considering its encouraging performance for H1FY09 it may register sales of Rs 275 cr and PAT of Rs 24 cr i.e. EPS of Rs 24 on equity of Rs 10 cr. Financially, it is not only a debt free but a cash rich company holding more than Rs 100 cr as liquid cash. So at current market cap of Rs 150 cr investors are effectively getting this MNC company for Rs 50 cr i.e. at Rs 50 per share. Due to current market sentiment, its share price has fallen 50% which may motivate the foreign promoters to buy back and delist the company from Indian bourses. In case they don’t opt for delisting, then may give handsome bonus in FY10 being its silver jubilee year. A solid buy

Friday, January 9, 2009

Smart Investments

IMP Powers Ltd
Click here to download Report

Genus Power Infrastructure Ltd
Click here to download Report

IMP Powers Ltd - Rs 48.00


Established in 1961, IMP Power Ltd (IMP) is engaged in manufacturing of entire range of power & distribution transformers, electrical & digital measuring instruments, testing equipments, test benches etc. It specializes in HV & EHV power, distribution, special Purpose, furnace, thyristor duty transformers & reactors ranging from 10 KVA to 150 MVA upto 220 kV class which is a very wide range and meets all requirements of customers under one roof. Being one of the oldest players and pioneers in the power equipment segment, it boasts of having a rich experience of nearly 5 decades. It has vendor approval from almost all the State Electricity Boards, major turnkey EPC contractors, big corporate houses and even from few international majors as well. IMP has been supplying its transformers to PSU like MSEB, RRVPNL, APTRANSCO, GEB, MPEB, BEST, NTPC, Power Grid etc and to leading private players including L&T, BHEL, Reliance, Crompton Greaves, IVRCL, Jyoti Structures, Siemens, ABB, Kalpataru, NTPC, KEC, Nagarjuna, Tata Power and many more. It has also been exporting its products to various countries such as U.K., Africa, New Zealand, Australia, Malaysia Cameroon, Dubai, Kenya, Nigeria, Ghana, Sri Lanka, Jordan, Nepal, Bangladesh etc for quite some time. However due to robust domestic demand, it derived only 6% revenue thru export in FY08. In short, it is among the few companies catering to all three sectors i.e. public, private & exports.

IMP has two factories – one at Mumbai & other at Silvassa. Till now, its 5 acre Silvassa facility was having a total installed capacity of 3600 MVA but only couple of months ago company has completed the expansion thereby taking the production capacity to 7000 MVA. This expansion has propelled IMP into one of the top 10 EHV and Power Transformers manufacturing companies in India. Importantly, IMP is the only transformer company in India in the zero sales tax zone enjoying 15 years (till 2012) sales tax holiday for its Silvassa unit. Secondly, it has got itself backward integrated through manufacturing of OLTC & RTCC in house thereby emerging as one of the lowest cost manufacturer of transformers. These are one of the critical components for manufacture of transformers. On the other hand, company has also upgraded its Kandivali plant to manufacture complete range of analog meters such as ammeter, voltmeter frequency meter, dynamometer type watt meter, power factor meter, phase sequence indicator, KVA Meter etc. in addition to high end meters like maximum demand indicator, trivector meter, multifunctional and kWh meters. It has recently launched 96 sq mm size electronic counter & digital display energy meters with pulse output as well as with communication ports which are in huge demand in market. Besides it has also developed a new family of products i.e. Transducers which will be launched shortly.

As a result of the Indian Government's huge plan to generate and distribute power, and also to substantially reduce T & D Losses in the next decade, the demand for transformers will be buoyant in the next decade. It is estimated that additional demand for transformers would be around 150,000 MVA per annum. In addition, another 20,000 MVA is expected from replacement market. Thirdly with growing transformer market in South Africa, Middle East and Europe, export of energy efficient transformer, which have low losses and low noise levels is also growing at a healthy pace. With the sharp fall in copper prices, realization price per transformer has also fallen proportionately. For year ending June 2008, IMP registered 30% rise in sales to Rs 134 cr and 25% increase in PAT to Rs 9.40 cr thereby posting an EPS of Rs 14. To fund its expansion plan, company has issued 11.80 lakh compulsorily convertible preference shares to be converted into equity by March 2009 @ Rs 161 per share. At the same time it also issued 7 lakh warrants (@ Rs 161/- only) out of which 4.50 lakh warrants are yet to be converted. On the back of excellent performance for Q1FY09, company can clock a turnover of Rs 200 cr and net profit of Rs 11.50 for FY09. This works out to an EPS of Rs 14 on diluted equity of Rs 18.20 cr. Investors are recommended to buy at current levels as share price can easily appreciate 50% within a year.


Click here to download Report (PDF)


Small & Beautiful

Yuken India (60.00) is one of the reputed manufacturers of power saving hydraulic pumps & valves which are very popular in heavy engineering industry as effective means of automation and hence find extensive use in various key sectors like machine tools, material handling equipment, construction machinery, drill rigs, automobiles, defence, steel, power & cement plants, plastic machinery etc. Besides it also manufactures complete hydraulic power units as per customer specifications, cylinders, parison controllers, actuators, accumulators and power packs. Due to phenomenal demand, company has doubled its hydraulic casting products capacity to 2400 TPA and is further augmenting it to 6000 TPA within next couple of year. Besides it made a tie up with Hydrocontrols SPA Italy to produce and market state-of-the-art mobile control valves especially for agriculture, construction, earth moving and lifting machineries. Fundamentally, from the last two quarters company’s margin came under pressure due to increase in input/raw material cost and sharp depreciation in rupee. But with the recent fall in metal prices across the board, its margin will improve in coming quarters. So despite dismissal performance for H1FY09, it may end FY09 with topline of Rs 100 cr and bottomline of Rs 2.75 cr. This translates into EPS of Rs 9 on a tiny equity of Rs 3 cr. If things get better it can report an EPS of 15~20 for FY10. Share price of this MNC Associate can easily appreciate 50% within a year.

Being a 67% subsidiary of Honda Motor Co. Japan, Honda Siel (150.00) is the undisputed leader in the field of portable generators with its “HONDA” brand commanding more than 70% market share. Infact company boasts of launching India’s first LPG run gensets which is doing extremely well along with its super silent series. For the first time company has achieved the sales volume of over 100,000 Units (112,517 units) in domestic markets for FY08. At the same time to reduce the input cost, company has indigenised few of the critical parts of engine which it use to import earlier. Thus it has successfully reduced the import content to 19% from 22% and is further slated to bring it down to 15% in the current year. Moreover to consolidate the manufacturing operations company is shifting its Rudrapur (Uttaranchal) plant to its factory at Greater Noida in Uttar Pradesh. Although it may disrupt the production in short term but surely will beneficial in long term. Considering its encouraging performance for H1FY09 it may register sales of Rs 275 cr and PAT of Rs 24 cr i.e. EPS of Rs 24 on equity of Rs 10 cr. Financially, it is not only a debt free but a cash rich company holding more than Rs 100 cr as liquid cash. So at current market cap of Rs 150 cr investors are effectively getting this MNC company for Rs 50 cr i.e. at Rs 50 per share. Due to current market sentiment, its share price has fallen 50% which may motivate the foreign promoters to buy back and delist the company from Indian bourses. In case they don’t opt for delisting, then may give handsome bonus in FY10 being its silver jubilee year. A solid buy.

Transformer & Rectifiers (150.00) is one of the leading manufacturers of power & distribution transformers, furnace transformers, rectifier transformers and specialized transformers. It currently manufactures transformers up to 220 kV class and has an installed capacity of 7,200 MVA transformers per annum. To cash on the boom in power sector, company is setting up a Greenfield plant in Moraiya, near Ahmedabad with an installed capacity of 16,000MVA. The new plant, expected to be operational by March’09 would be capable of manufacturing transformers upto 756kV class, though the company initially intends to manufacture transformers of 220kV and 400kV classes. As of now, company has order book position of Rs nearly Rs 400 cr, out of which 70% comprises of power transformers. For the H1FY09 it has registered 55% increase in sales to Rs 195 cr and 75% jump in net profit to Rs 22 cr. Accordingly it may end FY09 with sales of Rs 400 cr and NP of Rs 36 cr i.e. EPS of Rs 28 on current equity of Rs 12.90 cr. Importantly, it will start reporting substantial growth from FY10, as new plant will begin operations by then.
Part of Aditya Birla group company, Bihar Caustic (30.00) is among the leading caustic soda producer in the northern and eastern region of the country. Besides, it also produces liquid chlorine, hydrochloric acid, sodium hypochlorite, compressed hydrogen and has even ventured into aluminum chloride. Recently it has also set up a 25 TPD stable bleaching powder (SBP) plant as a value added product for chlorine utilization. As power constitutes one of the major input cost, company has put up its own 30 MW coal based captive power plant. Considering market condition and demand, company is augmenting the capacity of its caustic soda plant from 265 TPD to 300 TPD at a capital investment of Rs 30 cr. Although company is vulnerable to caustic soda price movement, but with Hindalco being its parent company & biggest customer, the margin of safety is high. Notably, company enjoys the highest operating margins among it peers - even better than Gujarat Alkalies and Chemfab Alkali. Financially company is doing excellent, although it reported drastic fall in profit for Sept’08 qtr as the boiler of the power plant tripped due to mal functioning of safety device and hence company has to purchase power from outside for time being. Still it may end FY09 with topline of Rs 200 cr and NP of Rs 38 cr i.e. EPS of Rs 16 on equity of Rs 23.40 cr. Apart from all this, company is contemplating to rechristen itself as Aditya Birla Chemicals (India) Ltd.

Wednesday, January 7, 2009

3i Infotech Ltd - Rs 35.00


3I Infotech Ltd

Established in 1993 by ICICI Bank, 3i Infotech (3i) has progressed over the years from a back office processing unit of the ICICI group to a technology company providing IT services and solutions to over 600 clients in more than 50 countries through 24 offices worldwide and 10 development centres in India. Infact it has emerged as the fourth largest Indian software products company offering a comprehensive range of software products & solutions primarily for banking, insurance, capital markets, mutual funds, telecom, manufacturing, retail & distribution industries. In addition, it offers a broad range of software services such as custom software development, IT consulting, enterprise application integration (EAI), business process outsourcing (BPO), managed IT Services, and specialized services such as product re-engineering, compliance consultancy, data warehousing, business intelligence etc. Besides, 3i is recognized as one of the major national players in the e- Governance consultancy space in India. Importantly, company derives 50:50 revenues from products and services which differentiate it from other IT companies. However, now the revenue mix is getting skewed more towards services with major growth driver being BPO. Premia, Kastle, Amlock, iBoss, Data Scan, Awacs, Mfund, Veda, Xroadz etc are few of its popular software products for core banking, insurance, stock exchange surveillance, treasury, risk & wealth management, mutual funds etc. It also has an ERP product suite, providing solutions for the retail, manufacturing, distribution, trading, fashion, and automotive, pharmaceutical and chemical industries. At the same time company provides complete end-to-end outsourcing solutions to various industries mainly in the domestic market and specializes in non-voice based BPO services. Due to its derisking business strategy company is not dependent on any one segment and has well diversified revenue model. Presently banking products constitutes 12%, Insurance products 9%, Capital Market products 11%, ERP 3%, technology services 33% and BPO/Transactions processing constitutes the rest 32%. 3i’s quality certifications include SEI CMMI Level 5 for software business and ISO 9001:2000 for infrastructure services and BPO operations.


Geographically, 3i derives around 34% revenue from South Asia, 29% from USA, 15% from Western Europe, 14% from Middle East & Africa and the balance 8% from Asia Pacific region. Apart from ICICI group being its largest customer, 3i boast of serving international biggies like Prudential Assurance, Finansa, AIG, Emirates Bank, RAK Bank, HP, GSK, Al Ansari, Solidarity Islamic Insurance, Commercial America Insurance, Standard Chartered, Deutsche Bank, Pidilite Industries etc. In order to beat the competition and grow at a rapid pace, company is betting high on inorganic route and has adopted an acquisition-led strategy to acquire new capabilities and foray into new geographies. In the last 2~3 years, 3i has made dozens of acquisitions globally as well as domestically. Ironically, it has more than 50 subsidiaries, step down subsidiaries and associates in total. While acquiring, the challenges are assimilation, integration and deriving benefits of synergies, in which 3i has been quite efficient.On the organic growth side, 3i has set up its first International Data Centre (IDC) in Chennai last year, which offers managed hosting services for applications and disaster recovery solutions. It is also in the midst of opening 255 new service centres in tier-II and tier-II cities to help banks and financial institutions in decreasing the processing time for various back office operations. These centre which will constitute a 'hub and spoke' model will be staffed by experts who will specialize in transactional services outsourcing related to processing credit cards, isurance applications, contact point verification, soft collections, cheque clearing services, reconciliations, etc. On the other hand company has bagged a huge contract from Central govt for setting up over 12,000 kiosks, spread across various states in India, for providing citizen services centers to be used for dispensing G2C(Government to Citizen) and B2C (Business to Customer) services. The pricing model for this e-governance project is based on the frequency of each service transactions taking place across kiosks. Recently, 3i has made a strategic tie up with ICICI Lombard, Airtel and Max Newyork Life to open 12,500 retail stores in rural areas to offer bouquet of retail services in general insurance, telecom and life insurance sector respectively. The company may invest Rs 200 crore for the complete project and would earn commission on per transaction basis.Currently, the order book for the company stands at about Rs 1300 crore comprising of about 40% from product business, 38% from IT and balances from transaction business. And most importantly, 3i business has been affected to a very limited extent because of US turmoil and bankruptcy. However if the world economy continues to be in recession, then it will slowdown company’s future growth rate. To summarize, 3i has a well diversified and a de-risked business model in terms of offerings (products/services nearly 1:1 with coverage of entire BFSI spectrum), geography (no country > 30% of revenues) and customers (ICICI Bank and other Top 10 clients’ concentration has been on a decline). To fund its various acquisitions, company has raised nearly Rs 175 cr and Rs 400 cr in April’07 & July’07 respectively thru FCCB route which are yet to be converted into equity. After reporting an EPS of Rs 14 for FY08 & encouraging performance for H109 on a consolidated basis, 3i is all poised to end FY09 with total revenue of Rs 2100 cr and bottomline of Rs 200 cr. This translates into EPS of Rs 15 on current equity of Rs 131 cr. Considering the CMP, the bond holder may not opt for conversion and the whole FCCB may come up for redemption in 2012. From the high of Rs 160 in Jan’08, the scrip has fallen almost 80% and the company is now available at decent valuation. Despite company having nearly Rs 2000 cr as debt (incl. FCCB) on its book, investors are recommended to buy at current levels as scrip can easily appreciate 50% within 9~12 months.


Click here to download Report (PDF)