STOCK WATCH

In Banking, Dena Bank (Code No: 532121) (Rs.31.65) still looks good from the long term perspective. With the object to increase its Capital Adequacy Ratio to 12 per cent, it is coming out with an IPO early next year, which will be highly oversubscribed at the upper band of Rs27. It has a high NPA level of 8 per cent, which the management is trying to reduce drastically. At the same time, it enjoys the distinction of having the highest productivity per employee among PSU banks. As per RBI guidelines, the bank has shifted securities from AFS to HTM category, which will give some support to treasury income. For FY05, the bank may surprise the market with an EPS of Rs8. At Rs31 it is the best buy as it can give handsome returns to investors.

Natco Pharma (Code No: 524816) (Rs.138.15) has recently launched Curcumin 500 mg. capsules, which act as an essential food supplement especially for cancer patients. Curcumin is found to be effective in the treatment of multiple myeloma, tumours and other cancers. Few weeks back, it launched an anti-tumour capsule for the palliative treatment of metastatic / progressive carcinoma of the prostate. Earlier, it had also released Cantret capsules for the treatment of recurrent / persistent ovarian cancer. The company is now planning for a foothold in the international market as well. For FY05, it may report an EPS of Rs12. A good bet in the pharma sector

Uttam Galva (Code No:513216) (Rs.37.40) has an ambitious Rs350 cr. expansion plan for increasing the cold rolled capacity by 4,00,000 TPA, expanding its galvanising line with a capacity of 3,50,000 TPA and to set up a most modern state- of-art pre-painting line with a capacity of 60,000 MT. For the current first half, its sales was up 79 per cent to Rs1030 cr. and NP was Rs39 cr. For the full year FY05, it can easily report an EPS of Rs12. The best buy in the steel sector at current levels.

Orissa Sponge (Code No:504846) (Rs.47.80) has massive expansion plans and is increasing its sponge iron and steel billet capacity to 2,50,000 TPA each and has also obtained government approval for its iron ore mining lease. Due to the scarcity of scrap iron and the huge demand sponge iron, prices are expected to remain firm. For the current full year, it is expected to report an EPS of Rs10. Its share price can rise 50 per cent from current levels once the scrip catches market fancy.

Aggressive investors can have a look at B&A Plantation (Code No: 508136) (Rs.39) in the Tea sector as it is reportedly doing well. For the current first six months, its total revenue increased by 17 per cent to Rs27.50 cr. and NP spurted 175 per cent to Rs3.05 cr. posting an half yearly EPS of Rs10 on an equity of Rs3.10 cr. For the full year, it may post an EPS of Rs12. Its share price can rise smartly in future.

Valecha Engineering - Rs.121.00

Valecha Engineering Limited (VEL) was promoted by Valecha Brothers as an entrepreneurial concern in 1957 and was converted into a public limited company in 1993. VEL specializes in construction of infrastructure, civil engineering works such as Highways, Airports, Flyovers, Bridges, Tunnels, Canals, Water supply schemes, Sewerage projects, Irrigation Dams, Storage reservoirs, Buildings, and foundation engineering with sophisticated pile drilling Hydraulic Rigs. VEL has entered into a number of technical collaborations as well as joint ventures with overseas companies bringing the latest technical know-how in executing the projects. The management team consists of qualified professionals with relevant experience and expertise to ensure a proper techno-economic feasibility of the projects undertaken to achieve the objectives without any time and cost overruns. This is backed by state of art technology and using the latest techniques in construction. The company also plans to go global and is in talks with a UAE / German company for Middle East projects and is in search of an active local partner over there.

Almost 70 per cent of VEL’s revenues come from execution of road projects. It is also the largest piling company in the country. Capital adequacy, appropriate equipment, expertise and past experience, track record of timely project completion are some of the requisites for pre-qualification. VEL has thus pre-qualified for Rs2700 cr. worth of works in the NHAI projects. The Centre’s thrust on investments in infrastructure with increased participation from the private sector comes as a major boost to VEL with its current order book swelling to more than Rs350 cr. The company still expects good orders in this fiscal and is very bullish about its future prospects for the next 5 yrs.

Financially, the company has a strong balance sheet with a low debt equity ratio of 1:1 compared to its peers. Moreover, as a promoter of Jyoti Structures it holds more than 10 lakh shares at an average price of Rs40 whereas the CMP of Jyoti Structures is around Rs 140. For the six months ending 30 Sept. 2004, it reported robust numbers with turnover increasing 47 per cent to Rs70.30 cr. whereas its NP increased by 44 per cent to Rs4.02 cr. With such large orders in hand, the company will do much better in the second half and is expected to report total revenue of Rs180 cr. with NP of around Rs10 cr. Due to its small equity of Rs4.50 cr., any small increase in profit will lead to a sharp increase in EPS. With an expected EPS of Rs22 in FY05, it discounts very cheap at a PE multiple of only 5. A strong buy at CMP, which can give minimum 50 per cent return in the next 12 months. Long term investors can expect much higher returns.

Bihar Caustic - Rs.51.00

Bihar Caustic & Chemicals (BCCL), incorporated in 1976 is a Joint Venture between BSIDC(Bihar State Indl. Development Corp.) and Aditya Birla Group. It is one of the leading manufacturers of Caustic Soda in the eastern region. Its product portfolio consists of three products: Caustic Soda and the by-products of Caustic i.e. Liquid Chlorine and Hydrochloric Acid. Since the last few months, the chlor-alkali industry has been witnessing steady improvement in electrochemical unit (ECU) realizations and the trend is accelerating. Moreover, due to the current global upturn in the Aluminium, Iron and Steel and Paper industry, Caustic Soda prices have shot up more than 30 per cent in international market. And as far as BCCL is concerned, it is positioned very well in terms of capacity utilization with its parent company. Hindalco (along with INDAL) buying nearly 75 per cent of its total production of Caustic Soda whereas, the existing capacity for products like Chlorine and Hydrochloric Acid is well absorbed by the network of ancillaries already set up.

Its manufacturing plant at Ghanshyamkunj at Rehta in the state of Jharkhand has an installed capacity to produce 51048 TPA of Caustic Soda, 39600 TPA of Liquid Chlorine and 29040 TPA of Hydrochloric Acid. As caustic soda production is power intensive, the company has put up a 30 MW coal based captive Power Plant due to which company enjoys stable and economic power supply. Further, the company has installed sodium hypo chloride plant to utilize chlorine in its pursuit of value addition. It has also been successful in increasing caustic soda production by operating the plant at 225 KVA load. To encash the demand growth of its product in tandem with the significant growth in the principal user segments i.e. Aluminium and Steel industry, the company is in the process of finalizing the project for conversion of existing mercury technology to energy efficient and environment friendly membrane technology with simultaneous capacity expansion of caustic soda by 50 per cent i.e. increase in capacity from 150 TPD to 225 TPD at an estimated investment of Rs.112 cr. And to utilize the hydrogen as a value added product, the company is setting up a Hydrogen Bottling Plant at a total cost of Rs.2.80 cr. Recently, the company successfully restructured its long term debt from Financial Institutions by reducing the rate of interest. It has also returned to the dividend list after a gap of four years. Promoters hold 65 per cent stake and the rest is with the general public.

For the quarter ending 30th Sept 04, its net sales was up 8 per cent to Rs.26.30 cr. whereas NP jumped 150 per cent to Rs.7.10 cr. due to higher unit price realisation resulting in an EPS of Rs.3. Its OPM also improved 700 basis point to 49 per cent compare to 42 per cent last year. Considering the fact that the global prices of chlor-alkali products led by caustic soda are showing no signs of retreat, the company's profit margins are likely to improve in the second half of the current year and we expect it to clock a turnover of Rs.115 cr. and NP of Rs.26 cr. This works out to an EPS of Rs.11 on current equity of Rs.23.40 cr. Currently this scrip is trading at less than 4 PE, which is quite cheap compared to its peers. Investors should buy with a price target of Rs.80 i.e. 60 per cent appreciation in the coming 12 months.

STOCK WATCH

Raipur Alloys (Code No. 504614) (Rs.63.90) is reportedly doing well. For the first half ending 30 Sept. 2004, it reported Net Sales of Rs83.50 cr. up 50 per cent and NP of Rs9 cr. registering an EPS of Rs7. For the full year, it should earn an EPS of Rs16. The scrip will gradually cross Rs100. Hold it for medium to long term.

Bongaigaon Refineries (Code No.500072) (Rs.92.15) is discounted poorly as marketmen fear that its benefit of only 50 per cent excise duty being in the North East may be withdrawn by the government. For the six months ending 30 Sept. 2004, its net sales was up 57 per cent to Rs2148 cr. and NP jumped 54 per cent to Rs293 cr. Trading at 4 PE on an expected EPS of Rs22 for FY05, makes it quite undervalued and it is sure to be re-rated going forward. Moreover, it’s a handsome dividend paying company.

Tata Sponge (Code No.513010) (Rs.151.60) is enhancing capacity from 2,40,00 TPA to 3,90,000 TPA and has ambitious expansion plans for the future with an investment of over Rs1000 cr. For the first six months of FY05, its Net sales grew 37 per cent to Rs114 cr. and NP jumped an impressive 86 per cent to Rs29.40 cr. Considering the robust sponge iron prices, it is expected to report an and EPS of Rs32 for the full year. It’s a good bet at current levels.

Cement prices have increased by Rs15 ~ 20 per bag in the South and other parts of India, which led to a sharp rally in cement stocks except Deccan Cements (Code No.502137) (Rs.58.95). Its sales was up 19 per cent to Rs62 cr. and NP doubled to Rs3.90 cr. in the first half of FY05. Its second half will be much better and the company is expected to post an EPS of Rs12 for the full year. Share price has the potential to appreciate 50 per cent from current levels. Hold patiently.

Crude oil prices have softened substantially and analysts expect it to stabilize at current levels and Savita Chemicals (Code No.524667) (Rs.162.05) will be a big beneficiary since its the main raw material for the company. But in spite of high crude oil prices, the company posted robust numbers in H1FY05 . Sales was up 35 per cent at Rs234 cr. whereas NP rose 7 per cent to Rs12.70 cr. For the full year FY05, it will report an EPS of more than Rs30. Accumulate it for handsome gains in the medium term. Apart from a good dividend, it is ripe for a bonus too.

Indo Asian Fuse Gear (Code No.517318) (Rs.87.50), manufacturer of switchgears, is having the best of times with good orders pouring in. Company is expected to do much better in future given the huge export opportunity and the booming power and construction sector. For the first half of FY05, its Net sales was up 87 per cent and NP zoomed to Rs5.70 cr. from just Rs0.30 cr. last year. For FY05, it can report an EPS of Rs14. Buy at dips for long term as the share price can double in 15~18 months.

Man Industries (Code No.513269) (Rs.88.30) may rise further before its December results are out. It has a strong order book and the company expects more orders in coming months. For FY05, it should report an EPS of Rs18. Share price can rise 30~40 per cent from the current level once its Q3 results are declared.

Tata Metaliks - Rs.150.00

Incorporated in 1990 and promoted by TISCO, Tata Metaliks manufactures foundry grade pig iron through the mini blast furnace route. Its products are used mainly by foundries for manufacturing automobile castings, industrial castings, pipes and others. The company has an agreement with Tata Korf Engineering Services for technical know-how and consultancy and the company has been following the Tata Business Excellence Model (TBEM) since 1999. Due to its cost competitiveness and other initiatives, it is the lowest cost producer of Foundry Grade pig iron. The company has started producing customized pig iron as per the technical requirements of users along with value added specialized products like high silicon pig iron etc., which have a good export market. Pig Iron prices are still ruling very high and will remain firm as the domestic demand is set to grow on the back of rising demand from auto ancillary and engineering sectors.

The company is putting up a new 1,00,000 TPA blast furnace at Kharagpur, which will take its total capacity to 2,63,000 TPA and is expected to become operational this month. Also, to minimize the adverse impact of the steep hike in the price of imported LAM Coal and Coke, the company has made arrangements for domestic conversion of imported Coal and blending the same with indigenous Coke. It has also decided to install its own non-recovery type of Cokery of 60,000 TPA inside the plant to meet 25 per cent of its total requirement and is examining opportunities to acquire some cokeries. Interestingly, it has applied for mining rights in the neighbouring iron ore rich belt. It is also planning to apply for a coking-coal block. For future growth, it even wants to go in for downstream integration with castings, special steels etc. To gear-up export revenue, the Business Development Group of the Company has taken initiatives to spread its foot print especially in South- East Asia, South-Korea & Japan and in other niche markets like Egypt and Dubai.

Due to capacity expansion and higher price realisation in the first half, its net sales more than doubled to Rs137 cr. whereas its NP jumped 270 per cent to Rs36 cr. in spite of very high tax provision. Its OPM improved substantially to 43 per cent from 25 per cent last year. And since its new unit is expect to start this month, it will post impressive numbers in the second half also. The company is almost debt free with no Long Term or Short Term borrowing. To share its growth story, it may declare Rs6~7 per share as dividend for FY05. Considering all these factors, the company should report a NP of Rs70 cr. on turnover of Rs310 cr. registering an EPS of Rs28. Investors are advised to buy on dips or in sharp corrections only with a long term perspective. This scrip has the potential to double in 18 months time.