STOCK WATCH

With every passing day, construction/infrastructure scrips continue to rise on the back of their galloping order book positions. The share price of Petron Engg. (Code No: 530381)(Rs.208.65) has also risen smartly in the past but is still relatively cheap compared to its peers. It has a huge Rs.500 cr. of projects in hand on its small equity of just Rs.7.50 cr. For FY06, it is expected to report a turnover of around Rs.400 cr. and NP of more than Rs.12 cr., which means an EPS of Rs.16. Apart from good fundamentals, the company is also expected to make some favourable announcement like preferential allotment, merger with some bigger company etc. A good bet for the short to medium term

Historically, cement prices remain low during the monsoon due to lower demand. But this time it was different. Cement prices have remained firm and are now expected to rise from September 2005. Mangalam Cement (Code No: 502157) (Rs.89.55), a B K Birla group company, is a good turnaround story in this sector. It has more than 1 MMT installed capacity but is available at a market cap of less than Rs.250 cr. Due to various restructing initiatives, the company is expected to post an EPS of Rs.8.50 and Rs.11 for FY06 and FY07 respectively. Share price can shoot upto Rs.120 in 6 months or so. A solid buy.

After relisting with a bang at Rs.174, Indoasian Fusegear India Ltd (Code No: 532658) (Rs.146.10), the new merged entity has corrected down sharply due to market sentiment and profit booking by weaker hands. The company in undergoing a Rs.55 cr. expansion whereby it will double the production capacity of circuit production devices and will raise its compact fluorescent lamps (CFL) capacity to 10 million units. It is also foraying into the manufacture of energy meters with a initial capacity of 5 million units besides planning acquisition of manufacturing facilities for wires and cables. For FY06 it can report Sales of Rs.220 cr. and NP of Rs.25 cr. leading to an EPS of Rs.22 and diluted EPS of Rs.18. For FY07, company is estimated to double its sales to Rs.450 cr. A strong buy for the medium to long term

Indian pharma companies are expected to grow substantially on the back of huge export potential, for which reason all pharma companies are setting up internationally approved plants. Hence downstream companies like Medi Caps (Code No: 523144) (Rs.60.30) can report a good topline growth in future. The company is the market leader in the production of gelatine capsules, which are widely used to package drugs, vitamins, antibiotics and cosmetics. Apart from having strong fundamentals, it’s a cash rich company with investments of more than Rs.11 cr. For FY06, it may register sales of Rs.23 cr. and NP of Rs.3.50 cr. leading to an EPS of Rs.11 on its small equity of Rs.3.12 cr. Moreover, it may be taken over by some big pharma company.

Of late sugar scrips have corrected sharply from their recent highs on account of profit booking. Investors can accumulate Mawana Sugars (Code No: 532512) (Rs.111.70) for medium to long term gains. It is one of the leading sugar manufacturers in North India with an installed capacity of 17,500 TCD. Due to the better prospects for sugar sector, the company is planning a huge Rs.500 cr. expansion in the next 2 yrs whereby it plans to nearly double its capacity to 31,000 TCD and also set up 30 MW co-generation plant. It will also set up new distillery to produce 120 Kilolitres per day of ethanol. For FY06, it can report NP of Rs.55 cr. i.e. an EPS of Rs.14 in its topline of Rs.650 cr.

Nectar Life Sciences (Code No: 532649) (Rs.269.95), which came out with an IPO at Rs.240 in June 2005, has still not appreciated much inspite of its strong fundamentals and bullish sentiment. It operates in oral and sterile forms of cephalosporin and semi synthetic penicillin bulk drugs. The company is expanding its cephalosporin facility and is going in for forward integration by setting up a formulations unit at Baddi. It currently exports its products to China, Korea, Hong Kong, South East Asian countries like Singapore and Thailand apart from European countries like Netherlands, Italy and Spain. On a consolidated basis, the company can report an EPS of Rs.25 for FY06. A safe bet.

Agro Dutch Inds - Rs.68.50

Incorporated in 1992, Agro Dutch Industries Ltd. (AGIL) was originally incorporated as Indo Dutch Foods Ltd, by Punjab Agro Industries Corporation Limited in the joint sector along with Mr. Malvinder Singh Bhinder and his Associates and is engaged in producing fresh white button mushrooms. Since then, AGIL has emerged as India’s largest and the world’s second largest integrated producer & exporter of mushroom constituting 85% of India’s total production and exports. Ironically, the company’s production is also equivalent to around 9 per cent of the annual mushroom production in USA

AGIL’s 100% EOU plant is located at Punjab, which produces over 80% of India’s wheat and wheat straw is the most vital substrate for mushroom growing. Interestingly, AGIL is the only integrated producer right from composting, cultivation, processing, can making and canning the mushrooms. Importantly, its high tech unit is equipped with climate controlled, concrete growing rooms, which ensures availablility of mushrooms each day round the year whereas China produces mushrooms only in the winter season. It has a technical collaboration with Dalsem of Holland.

Apart from the various incentives granted in the Union Budget, the biggest positive for AGIL was the sharp reduction in anti-dumping duty to below 1% from whopping 30% by USA. Since AGIL is the largest exporter to USA this change will have a substantial impact. Besides, Mexico has increased the anti-dumping duty on imports from China due to which Mexican orders are now flowing to AGIL. To cater to the increasing global demand and to become the worlds largest mushroom processor, AGIL is going for a Rs.100 cr. expansion and modernization, which will be funded by equity, debt and internal accruals. In the next 12 months, the company plans to increase its production capacity from 36,000 TPA to 50,000 TPA. It also intends to set up a Rs.35 cr. facility to manufacture cans in Chennai and become the No.1 can manufacturer in India. AGIL will also expand its IQF plant and diversify its product range to include frozen mushrooms for which the realization is better than canned mushrooms.

AGIL is also taking various initiatives to restructure its debt and reduce the interest burden (including non payment of dividend), which is as high as 10% of sales and equivalent to Rs.10 per share. Its June’05 numbers were quite disappointing with Sales down 35% to Rs.28 cr. and it reported a loss as the plant was running partially for due to some technical problem in its cooling system. Despite this, the long term prospect of AGIL look very promising and it may post Sales of Rs.140 cr. and NP of around Rs.9~10 cr. for FY06. Since the impact of the expansion will be seem in FY07 only, it may report Sales of Rs.200 cr. and NP of Rs.26 cr. This works out to an EPS of Rs.3.50 and Rs.9 on its diluted equity of Rs.29.50 cr. And as the acquisition cost works out to Rs.48 post-right issue (i.e. 1:1 @ Rs.25) basis, its FY07 earning is currently discounted by only 5 times. Hence only long-term investors are recommended to buy this scrip at declines as it can give 100% appreciation in 15 months.

Laffans Petro - Rs.25.00

Laffans Petro Ltd (LPL) was originally incorporated in 1991 in Maharashtra and was converted into a public limited company in 1992. Later, it shifted its registered office to Gujarat. It manufactures ethylene oxide derivatives such as Ethoxylates, Glycol Ethers, Acetates, Triethonal-amine and Brake fluids and sells it under the brand name ‘Laffcols’. It also produces speciality chemicals like surfactants (based on fatty alcohol), polyethylene glycols etc. Company’s products find application in a number of industries including chemicals, refineries, adhesives, ceramics, cosmetics, leather processing, pharmaceuticals, textiles, inks, paints, lubricants and paper. Its major customers include Goodlass Nerolac, Jenson & Nicholson, Berger Paints, Asian Paints, Castrol, Kalyani Brakes, Pidilite Industries to name a few.

LPL’s manufacturing plant located in GIDC at Panoli in Ankleshwar is set up with technical assistance from Reliance Industries. The unit has manufacturing capacity for Ethoxylated products of 15,000 TPA and Glycol Ether and its derivatives of 12,000 TPA. It is in close proximity to Reliance’s Hazira plant from where LPL gets regular supply of its basic feedstock i.e. Etheylene Oxide. Interestingly, the company maintains its own fleet of specially fabricated EO tankers and is the largest merchant consumer of pure ethylene oxide in the country.

Due to the high crude oil prices, the company’s margin has been under pressure for quite some time. It reported lower profits for FY04 though its topline maintained a healthy growth. But due to better product mix and higher price realization, LPL is expected to end FY05 with double-digit growth in its bottomline as well. It may register sales of Rs.140 cr. and NP of Rs.3.80 cr. for the year ending 30th Sept 2005. This works out to an EPS of around Rs.4.75 on its current equity of Rs.8 cr. For FY06, it can report an EPS of more than Rs.6. With a book value of Rs.33 a market cap of just Rs.20 cr. and FY06 earning merely discounted by 4x, this scrip is available quite cheap compared to its peers. Investors are strongly recommended to buy at the current low levels with a price target of Rs.40 i.e. 70% appreciation in 12~15 months.

STOCK WATCH

Metal scrips have been rising again turning analysts bullish once again towards this sector at least for the short term. In such a scenario, investors can look at Shah Alloys (Code No: 513436) (Rs.207.50). It came out with pretty encouraging numbers for June’05 qtr. While its sales grew by just 15% to Rs.258 cr., its NP jumped 42% to Rs.10 cr. due to lower interest cost. The company is the second largest stainless steel manufacturer and has ambitious expansion plans for future growth. Although it is not the preferred choice among institutional investors, still with an expected EPS of Rs.55 for FY06, its share price has the potential to cross Rs.250 in the near future.

Rama Paper (Code No: 500357) (Rs.42.50) which has recently come out of BIFR on restructuring intiatives is doing extremely well. It is into newsprint, writing & printing paper and duplex board for industrial use. It posted excellent results for June’05 qtr whereby its Sales increased by 15% to Rs.17.35 cr. but its NP jumped 140% to Rs.1.80 cr. on higher OPM. Company is taking all possible steps to repay its high debt and turn debt free for which it is raising around Rs.8.75 cr. through preferential allotment of 25 lakh shares @ Rs.35 each. It can post around EPS of Rs.9 for FY06 even on the diluted equity of Rs.7.50 cr. Scrip can rise by 50% in short to medium term.

Sugar scrips are buzzing on the bourses in anticipation of the bright future ahead. Purely on fundamentals Ponni Sugar (Erode) Ltd. (NSE Listed) (Rs.47.15), a south based sugar producer that enjoys export house status, seems a good bet. For FY05, while its sales increased by 11% to Rs.89 cr. the NP zoomed 140% to Rs.6 cr. posting an EPS of around Rs.7.50 on which it declared 10% dividend. The company is restructuring its debt portfolio replacing its high cost debt with lower interest bearing loans. Besides, it has huge inventory equivalent to around 5 months sales. For FY06, it may report an EPS of Rs.9. Buy at declines as the scrip can cross Rs.60 in a year.

Branded PCs have started to grow at a fast pace as people now prefer branded PCs over assembled computers. Zenith Computers Ltd. (Code No: 517164) (Rs.33.95), one of the largest manufacturer & seller of complete range of PCs, servers, LAN, WAN, Unix product etc is available reasonably cheap. For future growth, the company is focusing on its laptop business and is concentrating to increase exports to the Middle East. For FY06, it can earn a NP of Rs.6 cr. on Sales of Rs.320 cr. resulting in an EPS of Rs.4 on current equity of Rs.15.50 cr. In spite of strong fundamentals and huge growth potential, it enjoys a market cap of only Rs.50 cr. It’s a strong buy as the share price can rise 50% in 9~12 months.

Winsome Textiles (Code No: 514470) (Rs.27.60) belonging to the well-known Winsome group is engaged in the manufacture of a variety of 100% cotton yarn used for weaving and knitting. For the June’05 qtr., it posted encouraging results. Sales remained flat at Rs.31.30 cr. but NP zoomed 150% to Rs.1.10 cr. due to lower interest cost and better operating efficiency. The company has a very small equity of Rs.5.90 cr. but has huge debt of around Rs.75 cr. on which it pays around Rs.8 cr. as interest. In spite of this and coupled with the high depreciation of around Rs.5 cr., the company is expected to report a bottomline of Rs.4 cr. on a topline of Rs.145 cr. leading to an EPS of Rs.7 for FY06. With the benefit of corporate debt restructing and higher margins, it can easily post an EPS of Rs.10~12 for FY07. With a book value of Rs.46 and FY07 EPS discounting of just 2 times, this scrip can be a multibagger in the long run.

With crude oil trading almost near USD 70 per barrel, India Glycols (Code No: 500201) (Rs.173), the only producer of MEG through the molasses route, will definitely benefit as the price of molasses has not risen the way crude oil has. As polymer prices are rising, MEG (which is the basic raw material for polymer) prices have also started to move up. Apart from this, the company has recently completed its expansion and is all set to report a NP of Rs.100 cr. i.e. EPS of Rs.35 on Sales of Rs.725 cr. for FY06. Against this, it has a market cap of only Rs.450 cr. and is trading at a PE of less than 5x. Its share price can cross Rs.250 in the near future. A strong buy.

Jhunjhunwala Vanaspati - Rs.40.50

Incorporated in 1989, Jhunjhunwala Vanaspati Ltd (JVL) is primarily engaged in the production of refined oil & vanaspati ghee. It markets and sells its products under the brand name ‘Jhoola’ which is a leading brand in UP and eastern India with about 40% market share. Its vanaspati ghee and refined oil is basically consumed by the medium and lower income group and in the rural areas. The company uses modern technology for refining oil as the traditional method of chemical refining leads to high process losses in comparison to the physical refinery

JVL’s has a state-of-the-art integrated plant with an installed capacity of 350 TPD. In fact, it is the single largest unit manufacturing vanaspati ghee in India. The company has continuously gone in for technological upgradation over the last few years and has obtained ISO 9001- 2000 certification for its quality system. JVL has also tied up with the UK-based Oriental Commodities to produce herbal Ayurvedic capsules of various popular vegetables, fruits and herbs by preserving them in their purest form to maintain the original colour, flavour, taste and potency of product. It has also ventured into the manufacture of HDPE containers and tin containers. Apart from all these developments JVL is expected to perform better thanks to the incentives to the sector, which includes abolition of excise duty combined with a possible offer to import vegetable oils at concessional rate for production of Vanaspati.

Fundamentally as well as financially, the company is quite strong. It’s a debt free and cash rich company having huge liquid investments, equivalent to almost Rs.127 per share. On its small equity of Rs.6.83 cr., it has reserves of around Rs.28 cr., which leads to a book value of Rs.61 as on 31st March 2005. For FY05, it earned NP of Rs.5.80 cr. posting an EPS of Rs.8.50 on total sales of Rs.486 cr. Again, the company has posted encouraging result for the June’05 qtr with Sales of Rs.146 cr. and NP of Rs.1.75 cr. Considering all these factors, JVL is expected to end FY06 with turnover of Rs.600 cr. and NP of Rs.6.50 cr. which means an EPS of Rs.9.50. Investors are strongly recommended to buy this scrip with a price target of Rs.60 (50% appreciation) in the next 9~12 months.