Manali Petrochemicals - Rs.24.50

Incorporated in 1986, Manali Petrochemicals Ltd. (MPL) was promoted by SPIC to manufacture Propylene Oxide, Propylene Glycol and Polyols (Petrochemicals) used as industrial raw materials. Propylene Glycol is manufactured to IP/USP specifications and finds extensive use in pharma preparations, food flavours, cigarettes, paints, cosmetics etc. Its by-products di and tri propylene glycol are primarily used in the resin industry and for manufacturing of Fat-G-bricks - an energy conserving building material. It also supplies Isocyanates imported from USA and Japan along with Polyols to the Polyurethane (engineering plastic) industry and provides technical services to the user industries. Importantly, MPL is the only producer of polyol in India due to the sophisticated technology requirements and being a highly capital intensive industry

MPL has two plants located at Manali on the outskirts of Chennai and close to the plants of Chennai Petroleum from where it sources its major raw propylene through a pipeline. It has an installed capacity of 35,000 MTA of propylene oxide 13,250 MTA of propylene glycol and 14,000 MTA of polyol. MPL also has technical agreement with Technip France to provide the technology of Ato Chem of France for the manufacture of propylene oxide and propylene glycol and that of Arco Chemical Co. of USA. for the manufacture of polyols. Due to the strong demand from user industries and the healthy order book position, both its plant are working at almost 100% capacity utilization.

Financially, MPL was making losses but has dramatically turnaround from FY05. It had a carried forward loss of Rs.35.33 cr. on its equity of Rs.114.70 cr. But under the recent restructuring scheme MPL has adjusted the said losses of Rs.35.33 cr. partly by reducing its equity by Rs.28.67 cr. and partly from the share premium of Rs.6.66 cr. This equity reduction was by way of reducing the face value of its share from Rs.10 to Rs.7.50, which made the company’s net worth positive. Hence the company would be able to borrow at a lower rate of interest in future and can also declare dividend. For FY06, MPL is estimated to clock a turnover of Rs.375 cr. and NP of 45 cr. This works out to an EPS of about Rs.4 on its reduced equity of Rs.86 cr. and face value of Rs.7.50. With a 52 week high of Rs.29, this scrip has the potential to cross Rs.35 i.e.50% appreciation in 6~9 months. Long term investors can expect a price target of Rs.50 in 18 months or so.

STOCK WATCH

Of late, textile scrips have lost their shine and are available at reasonable valuation. One such scrip is APM Industries (Code No: 523537) (Rs.42.30) which has cooled off from a high of Rs.75 to the current Rs.40. Its core business is manufacturing and marketing of synthetic blended yarn and it has recently enhanced its production capacity from 39,104 to 43,136 spindles. For the six month ending Sept 2005, it has already clocked an EPS of Rs.3.5 and it can report an EPS of Rs.8 on its current equity of 4.32 cr. for FY06. Trading at 65% discount to its book value and a PE multiple of just 5 times, it’s a pure value buy at current levels.

Sanjivani Parenteral (Code No: 531569) (Rs.54.30) has steadily progressed by manufacturing high quality medicines, mainly injectibles since 1998 for many reputed companies. Today, it has emerged as one of the biggest manufacturers of injectibles in the country. Its manufacturing facility is WHO GMP certified and is located at Taloja in Maharashtra and manufactures high grade antibiotics and life saving injectibles used in various pre and post-operative infections. Considering order book position for FY06, it can report Sales of Rs.45 cr. and NP of near Rs.7 cr. i.e. EPS of Rs.12 on its diluted equity of around Rs.6 cr. Inspite of such a strong growth story, its market cap is below Rs.30 cr. while it is discounted merely 4 times against its FY06 earning. A potential multibagger like Ankur Drugs!

Laffans Petro (Code No: 524522) (Rs.27.25) manufactures ethylene oxide derivatives such as Ethoxylates, Glycol Ethers, Acetates, Triethonal-amine, and Brake fluids. Due to higher demand and better price realisation of its products, it is expected to perform better in future. For FY05 ending 30th Sept 2005, its Sales grew by 30% to Rs.140 cr. whereas the NP doubled to Rs.4.30 cr. posting an EPS of Rs.5 on its small equity of Rs.8 cr. For FY06, the company is expected to report an EPS of more than Rs.6. Due to its low profit margin and rising raw material costs, the scrip is discounted very poorly on the bourses. But since the crude oil price has stabilized, its only matter of time for it to catch market fancy. With a book value of more than Rs.35 and 52 week high of Rs.40, the scrip is bound to cross Rs.50 in the coming mid-cap bull run.

After hitting a recent high of Rs.95, Kilburn Eng. (Code No: 522101) (Rs.59) has corrected sharply to just Rs.50 plus levels. It operates in areas of process design, engineering, manufacture, installation and commissioning of turnkey plants and systems catering to petrochemicals, chemicals, fertilisers, refineries, oil and gas and food processing. To improve its working capital requirement, the company is coming out with 1:1 rights issue at Rs.25 i.e. 50% discount to its CMP. For FY06 ending 30th Sept’06, it can report Sales of Rs.70 cr. and NP of Rs.8 cr. which means an EPS of Rs.6 on its expanded equity of Rs.13.50 cr. In spite of being in such a high growth sector, the scrip is cheaply discounted and overlooked by investors. A good long-term buy.

Investors have currently dumped metal scrips as the whole sector has lost its shine due to a fall in steel and other metal prices. But Sunflag Iron and Steel (Code No: 500404) (Rs.14.50) seems good scrip to accumulate in such a market condition for the long term. It has a modern state- of- the- art integrated steel plant with a capacity to produce over 2,00,000 MTA of high quality special steel as well as produce 1,50,000 MTA sponge iron Its product mix covers a wide range such as Carbon Special Steel, Alloy Steel, Free Cutting Steel, Ball Bearing Steel and Spring Steel. With an expected EPS of Rs.5 and 52 week high of Rs.27, this scrip has the potential to give 50% return in 12 months.

Another textile scrip, which is a good long-term bet, is Suryalata Spinning (Code No: 514138) (Rs.81.20). This south based manufacturer of cotton and blended yarn has capacity of 57,000 spindles. It is undergoing expansion to increase the capacity to 65,000 spindles and further by another 50,000 spindles over the next 2 years. It also intends to forward integrate itself into weaving and processing of fabric. For FY06, it can clock a turnover of Rs.175 cr. with NP of Rs.7.5 cr., which leads to an EPS of Rs.14 on its current equity of Rs.5.40 cr. Also, the company has made preferential allotment at Rs.88. Its share price can rise 50% in 6~9 months.

Amarjothi Spinning Mills - Rs.70.00

Incorporated in 1987, Amarjothi Spinning Mills Ltd (ASML) was promoted by the well known Amarjothi Group of Tirupur. Since then, ASML has emerged as one of the major manufacturer of mélange yarn in South India. Its factory is located at Pudusuripalayam in Tamilnadu and has a capacity of around 36,000 spindles. Besides it has recently set up a yarn dyeing unit at Perundurai with an installed capacity of 5,000 kgs per day which became fully operational from March 2005. Interestingly, due to the dismantling of the quota system, exports from Tirupur are expected to increase three fold by 2008 and so is the demand for yarn - the basic raw material. Hence ASML being a major yarn supplier with 80% sales volume coming from Tirupur is set to witness phenomenal growth in coming years.

To cater to this increasing demand, ASML is enhancing its spinning capacity by 60% to 58,000 spindles by end of this fiscal thereby taking its total production capacity to 8mn kg per year from 5mn kg. It has also recently installed two more windmills of 1.65MW each thereby taking the total windmill capacity to 6.6 MW. Thus the entire power requirement of its Spinning Division is met through its own 4 windmills. It is planning to introduce new products like dyed fibre yarn, dyed cotton yarn, PC yarn, sewing thread etc. for future growth. Company has obtained ISO 9001:2000 certification which will increase the trade/export opportunities for the company. It has its eye on the export market too and targets 25% of its earnings to come from exports by FY07 from 5~10% currently.

Being a significant contributor to the country’s total exports the government has announced several incentives like withdrawal of excise duty, concessional rate of interest under TUF scheme, removal of quantitative ceiling on export of cotton yarn to non-quota countries, TEXPROCIL’s endorsement for export of cotton yarn has been dispensed with, import of consumable spares under the EPCGC scheme has been allowed by paying only 5% customs duty etc. All these factors are positives for the company apart from the fall in cotton prices this year. Although the first half numbers of FY06 are not encouraging due to increased depreciation etc, the long-term prospects look very promising. For FY06, ASML is expected to report sales of Rs.80 cr. and NP of Rs.6.75 cr. which amounts to an EPS of Rs.10 on its current equity of Rs.6.75 cr. For FY07, it can earn NP of more than Rs.10 cr. NP i.e. EPS of Rs.15. Thus, the scrip discounts less than 5 times against its FY07 earning. Only long term investors are recommended to buy at current levels as the scrip has the potential to double in 18~24 months.

Kilburn Chemicals - Rs.49.00

Incorporated in 1990, Kilburn Chemicals Ltd (KCL) is a professionally-managed company growing under the guidance of Mr. Deepak Khaitan of the Williamson Magor Group. It is engaged in the production of Titanium Dioxide (TiO2) and ferrous sulphate salt. TiO2 finds use in a variety of industrial products such as paints, footwear, rubber products, plastics, paper, cosmetics etc. whereas ferrous sulphate is a greenish crystalline chemical used in a wide range of applications - as a plant nutrient, in effluent treatment and as a starting material for iron oxide pigments. Importantly, there are only 2 manufacturers of TiO2 in India, which means large portion of the TiO2 demand is fullfilled by imports. KCL also produces Ferro Gypsum, a by-product, which is ideally suitable for groundnut/paddy cultivation and for the sugarcane crop.

KCL’s manufacturing plant is located at Thoothukkudi, Tamil Nadu with an installed capacity of 8250 MTA of TiO2 and 17580 MTA of ferrous sulphate salt. Conforming to ISO & BIS standards, anatase grade TiO2 is manufactured via the sulphate route. This is the only integrated TiO2 plant in India fully-equipped with a self-integrated Pollution Abatement Scheme. An acid re-concentration plant is also under implementation to drastically reduce acidic effluent generation. Being closed to the availability of main raw material i.e. Ilmenite, KCL is able to produce TiO2 at a reasonable cost. As it faces major competition from imports, the biggest breakthrough was the imposition of the final anti-dumping duty on TiO2 imports from China by the department of Commerce in March 2004. Due to increased demand for its products by the user industries, KCL plans to increase production and change the product mix with more value-added products. It’s also putting greater thrust on exports to advance the market for better margins.

Besides, KCL is exploring the possibility of setting up new business in the area of Information Technology. It is also setting up windmills for generation of electricity at a lower cost. For the first six months ended 30th September’05, its total revenue increased by 13% to Rs.29 cr. but its NP doubled to Rs.3.20 cr. For the full year FY06, it may clock a turnover of Rs.65 cr. and NP of Rs.6.50 cr. This works out to an EPS of Rs.9 on its current equity of Rs.7.40 cr. KCL may declare 20% dividend for FY06 which amounts to a dividend yield of 4% at the current market price (CMP). Investors are advised to buy and hold this scrip for at least one year with a price target of Rs.75 i.e. 50% appreciation. Long-term investors can expect it to double in 18~24 months.

STOCK WATCH

Property rates are rising in ‘B’ group cities and construction work is in full swing. Eldeco Housing (Code No: 523329) (Rs.156), a north-based civil construction company has taken several new mega projects worth Rs.250 cr. in Lucknow. Few months back, it launched 4 projects which fetched an overwhelming response in the market. Its other projects like Park View Apts, Suraksha Enclave, Sanskriti Enclave are nearly completed. For FY06 it can report an EPS of Rs.20~25 on its tiny equity of Rs.1.97 cr. A screaming buy in such a growing sector.

Belonging to reputed Winsome Group, Winsome Textiles (Code No: 514470) (Rs.24.05) is a professionally managed company manufacturing 100% cotton yarn for weaving as well as for knitting. To cash in on the post quota boom, the company in undergoing expansion by installing additional 5 combers to convert part production of its carded cotton yarn to combed yarn which has better margins. Also, some balancing machines are being installed for dyeing to enhance productivity. With lower cotton prices and higher demand for yarn, the company is expected to perform much better in the future. For FY06, it can report sales of Rs.150 cr. and NP of Rs.3.50 cr. which means an EPS of Rs.6 on its small equity of Rs.5.90 cr. With a current market cap of a mere Rs.15 cr. and book value of Rs.46, this scrip is a pure multibagger if held for 2~3 years.

The share price of growing mid-cap companies like Mahalaxmi Seamless (Code No: 513460) (Rs.35) has corrected more than 50% in the recent correction and is still hovering around the same level. It is one of the largest producers of cold drawn seamless tubes and its products are used in various industries like petroleum, chemicals, fertilisers, thermal power plants besides oil processing, sugar mills and automobiles. Its pipes and tubes are also used in boilers, heat exchangers and condensers, besides pneumatics and instrumentation. For FY06, it is expected to report sales of Rs.35 cr. and NP of 3.5 cr., which means an EPS of Rs.7 on its current equity of Rs.5.30 cr. A solid buy.

The fall in price of hot rolled (HR) coils is positive for Stelco Strips (Code No: 513530) (Rs.18.55) as it manufactures and markets Cold Rolled Steel Strips/Sheets. Currently, its thrust is to increase exports to China, Ethiopia, Vietnam, Germany etc which currently constitute 36% of its Sales. Moreover, it is implementing a forward integration programme of a continuous galvanising line for the manufacture of G.P and G.C sheets. For the first current six months its Sales doubled to Rs.72 cr. and the NP almost tripled to Rs.1.80 cr. For FY06, it can post an EPS of Rs.6. With a book value of Rs.28 and preferential allotment at Rs.31, the share price can easily appreciate 50% in 12 months.

Eventhough the Sensex is hitting all time highs, there in not much action in mid-cap and small-cap stocks. Seasons Textile (Code No: 514264) (Rs.11.60) which hit a high of Rs.30 a few months back finds no buyers currently at Rs.11. The company manufactures furnishing fabrics and its thrust on exports by tapping new markets in USA & Europe will change its fortunes. In FY05, it modernised it plant and added new capacity of 2,40,000 mtrs. For FY06, it may report Sales of Rs.35 cr. and NP of Rs.2 cr. which means an EPS of Rs.3 on its diluted equity of Rs.6.60 cr. For FY07 it can post an EPS of Rs.5. With a book value of Rs.25 and having made preferential allotment at Rs.15, this scrip is available for a song with a minimal downside risk. Pick it up and keep it for one to two years.

E-Governance has become the buzzword with all State governments and they have allocated huge budgets for various projects. CCS Infotech (Code No:532405 ) (Rs.9.25) being the leading hardware supplier to banks, educational Institutions, government Institutions, state electricity boards, LIC etc is set to benefit from it. It has even started to bid for BOLT projects with the government which will bring in long term revenues. Besides, it has started manufacture of notebooks in the brand name of CCS at its Pondicherry factory. It has even entered a partnership agreement with IBM for marketing Desktops and Laptops. For the six months ending 30th Sept.’05, its Sales has more than tripled to Rs.27 cr. and NP jumped 335% to Rs.2.35 cr. Considering its order in hand position it can report an EPS of around Rs.4 on its current equity of Rs.9.20 cr. Aggressive investors can buy at current levels for handsome gains in the medium to long term.