STOCK WATCH

After the removal of quota in 2005, Kallam Spinning Mills Ltd. (Code:530201) (Rs.21.75) is aggressively expanding capacity to cash in on the increased demand. In FY06, it augmented its spinning capacity by 50% to 33648 from 22608 spindles. It is again increasing 30% capacity by adding another 11040 spindles at investment of Rs.22.50 cr., taking the total to 44688 spindles. For the June’06 quarter, its turnover as well as PBT grew by 30% to Rs.9.90 cr. and Rs.1.40 respectively. For FY06, it declared 10% dividend and the scrip is trading cum dividend offering an yield of 5% at CMP. The company has its own hydel power plants, which generate power for captive consumption reducing its power cost considerably. For FY07, it is estimated to clock a turnover of Rs.45 cr. and net profit of Rs.4.25 cr. i.e. EPS of Rs.6 on its current equity of Rs.6.85 cr. At the current market cap of Rs.14 cr., it’s a steal!

Although Indian Toners & Developers Ltd. (Code:523586) (Rs.26) is facing stiff competition from local importers and its margin is under pressure in absolute terms it is performing better on the back of higher volumes and development of new products including toners for the new generation digital machines and laser printers. For June’06 quarter, sales recorded a handsome gain of 40% at Rs.9.20 cr. whereas net profit increased by 25% to Rs.0.82 cr. For future growth the company is betting high on exports, and has set up a wholly-owned subsidiary in USA and a representative office in Singapore. Further, it is planning to put up offices in China & Europe to capture new markets. It has also started selling printer components through its existing network to increase its top-line. For FY07, it may register a top-line of Rs.40 cr. and PAT of Rs.4 cr., which leads to an EPS of Rs.5 on its current equity of Rs.8 cr. Having a book value of Rs.31 and 52-week as Rs.41, the scrip has the potential to give 25-30% return in a year’s time.

As Gujarat Reclaim & Rubber Products Ltd. (Code:509152) (Rs.242.40) is traded only in physical form, only genuine long-term investors are recommended to buy this scrip. Due to the sharp increase in the price of natural and synthetic rubbers, the demand for reclaim rubber has increased considerably. And to cater to the rising demand, the company is putting up a third plant at Panoli in Gujarat with a capacity of 10,000 MTA. Post expansion, its production capacity will stand enhanced to 40,000 MTA making it among the top three producers of reclaim rubber in the world. For FY06, its sales increased by 30% to Rs.59 cr. and net profit jumped 40% to Rs.5.80 cr. reporting an EPS of Rs.44 on its very tiny equity of Rs.1.33 cr. It declared Rs.10 as dividend leading to a yield of around 5%. It also announced very encouraging numbers for the June’06 quarter as well. For FY07, it may post an EPS of Rs.50. Share price will shoot up sharply once it goes for demat trading or declares liberal bonus as it has huge reserves of around Rs.15 cr.

Ahlcon Parenterals (I) Ltd. (Code:524448) (Rs.50) manufactures life-saving Intravenous Fluids and medical disposals employing highly sophisticated production process imported from Switzerland. Its product range includes Dextrose, Saline, Electrolytes, Amino Acids, Fat Emulsion, Blood Substitutes, Small Volume Injectables, Eye Drops etc. It as also setting up a state-of-the-art testing facility and formulation development lab equipped with the best infrastructure. It ended FY06 on a buoyant note with 25% higher sales at Rs.45 cr. while the net profit tripled to Rs.6.70 cr. recording an EPS of Rs.9 on its equity of Rs.7.20 cr. For June’06 quarter, its sales and PAT grew by nearly 15% to Rs.12 cr. and Rs.1.72 respectively. With an expected EPS of Rs.10 for FY07, this niche company is trading fairly cheap at a P/E ratio of less than 5 times.

Power sector is the flavour of the season and is expected to remain so for the next 5 years as massive investments are lined up in coming years. GIPCL (Code:517300) (Rs.62.60) is also in the process of doubling its capacity at Surat Lignite Power Plant (SLPP) to 500 MW from 250 MW and is working on setting up two 1000 MW projects in South Gujarat, besides diversifying into power distribution in the state as part of its expansion plans. For June’06 quarter, its sales increased marginally to Rs.192 cr. but the net profit jumped 65% to Rs.70 cr. due to lower tax provisioning and higher extra ordinary income. For the Full year FY07, it is estimated to clock a turnover of Rs.825 cr. with net profit of Rs.150 cr. leading to an EPS of Rs.10 on its equity of Rs.151 cr. The scrip can easily hit a new high above Rs.100 in 9-12 months.

Virinchi Technology - Rs.37.00

Incorporated in 1990, Virinchi Technology Ltd. (VTL), erstwhile Virinchi Consultants Ltd., is an e-Business solutions provider for large enterprises and government establishments in the areas of e-procurement, private exchanges, supply chains and finance. It is the global leader in providing IT solutions to the retail micro lending industry in North America. VTL is ISO 9001:2000 certified for its production, delivery and quality processes and is currently being assessed for CMM Level 5 certification. The company has four strategic business units: B2B e-commerce, enterprise wide resource planning solutions, networking and services. Its B2B understanding is backed by domain expertise in an array of industry verticals like Chemicals, Pharmaceuticals, Cement, Electronics, Telecom, Food & Agriculture, Oil & Gas, Automobiles and Infrastructure.

Presently, VTL has two development centers in Secunderabad - one in Vikrampuri and the other in Marredapally spread across 25000 sq ft and employing around 250 engineers. It has several wholly-owned enterprise-wide software products providing solutions to over 10 industry domains with more than 55 clients located across 12 countries. It has offices in India, Malaysia, United States, Italy, Germany, Switzerland, Middle East & Hong Kong. Its clientele include biggies like McKinsey & Company, Venture 2002, the Birla Group, Saudi Telecom, Saudi Electricity co, Globoworks, Bank Lonmbard, Perintis, Advance America etc. Few of its software products such as Enterprise Enabler 3.0, CaseTrail, Financial & Accounts Management for Enterprises (FAME), TrackPORT, MarketSmart, Secure, Hospitality Management System (HMS) have been huge successes and are witnessing good demand in the global markets. Last year, VTL acquired K-Soft System Inc., a US based company providing enterprise business solutions with vast experience & expertise in packaged product implementation for a total consideration of around Rs.12 cr. Besides, the company also intends to grow organically and is planning to expand its Hyderabad facility to accommodate 1000 techies. Interestingly, in September’05 VTL forayed into mobile applications covering gaming, enterprise solutions and also partnered Mobitas to develop applications for the construction industry.

To conclude, VTL’s vast domain expertise across industries coupled with its product development and implementation experience, in onsite-offshore model and pure offshore model to global clientele act as the USP for the company. For FY06, its top-line grew by 40% to Rs.26 cr. and its bottom-line gained by 45% to Rs.8.55 cr. registering an EPS of Rs.6 on its equity of Rs.13.91 cr. It reported quite encouraging numbers for the June’06 quarter as well and is estimated to post revenue of Rs.32-35 cr. with net profit of Rs.10 cr. for FY07. This translates into an EPS of Rs.7 on its diluted equity of Rs.15.15 cr. having a 52-week high/ low as Rs.77/ Rs.24, it’s a safe bet at the current level and can give 50% return in 9-12 months.

BSEL Infrastructure - Rs.45.00

BSEL Infrastructure Realty Ltd. (BIRL) incorporated in 1995 as Bell South Enterprises Ltd. and subsequently renamed as BSEL Information System in 1998 changed its name to the present ‘BIRL’ in August’03 it. The company’s primary activity is infrastructure development as it has completely moved out of the software development/ programming business.Its first project i.e. BSEL Tech Park with saleable area of around 3,00,000 sq. ft. has been completed and is a huge success with 80% of the area already sold. Its other project, Hilton Centre consists of 22,000 sq. ft. of aesthetically designed; fully furnished office at prime location in CBD Belapur was also sold out. Besides, out of the 80,000 sq. ft. area acquired by the company from CIDCO in the International Infotech Park at Vashi, 60,000 sq. ft. has already been leased to.

The major revenue driver for BIRL will be its ongoing and future projects. In Gujarat, the company is setting up service apartments, a prime budget hotel, a food court with recreational facilities having a saleable area of 6,00,000 sq. ft., which is likely to be completed by June’07. It is also constructing a 3,50,000 sq. ft. shopping mall by the name ‘Beauty Palace’ in Nagpur of which around 70,000 sq. ft. will belong to the company. Its wholly-owned subsidiary is also developing residential, commercial, retail properties, townships etc in Dubai and has already acquired 1,00,000 sq. ft. area at Business Bay & Internet City in Jumeira. BIRL has also acquired 30-acre land at Bokhar near Panvel and Navi Mumbai SEZ where it plans to develop a mega city township. It has also participated in the tender for the allotment of a five storied BMC building at Tardeo for running a municipal retail market admeasuring around 40,000 sq. ft. apart from other luxury and lifestyle projects.

To fund its projects, the company raised above Rs.90 cr. a few months back through the GDR route and which got converted into Rs.2.27 cr. shares at around Rs.41. For FY06, its total revenue jumped by 135% to Rs.46 cr. whereas its net profit increased by 120% to Rs.22 cr. registering an EPS of around Rs.4 on its equity of Rs.59.30 cr. It reported stunning numbers for the June’06 quarter as well. Assuming the same track record, could end FY07 with a top-line of Rs.85 cr. and bottom-line of Rs.35 cr. i.e. an EPS of Rs.6. Considering the strong growth story, the ambitious projects on hand and its solid land bank, the share could touch Rs.75 (100% return) in 15-18 months. The company, however, is planning to raise further capital by way of FCCB, which will dilute its equity going forward and may change the fundamentals accordingly.

STOCK WATCH

In the sugar sector, Indian Sucrose Ltd. (Code: 500319) (Rs.31.70), a small sugar company, seems a pure value buy at current levels. It has already expanded its crushing capacity from 3500 to 5000 TCD and can easily expand to 6000 TCD in the near future. Besides, it has acquired a sugar unit in Dhuri, Punjab, having a capacity of 2500 TCD, which can be merged with it later on. For the first qtr. of June’06, its sales spurted by 60% to Rs.35 cr. and net profit increased by 45% to Rs.3.90 cr. reporting an EPS of Rs.2.50 for the quarter. Although marketmen are lukewarm on the sugar sector, it cannot be written off and may bounce back with better sugar prices. As such, Indian Sucrose may end FY07 with sales of Rs.150 cr. and net profit of Rs.14 cr. i.e. EPS of Rs.9 on its equity of Rs.15.40 cr. With the company foraying into retail segment aggressively and having a distillery unit which produces four well known brands of rum, the scrip is trading fairly cheap and can be bought for handsome gains for the long-term.

Despite great expectations, Jupiter Bioscience Ltd. (Code: 524826) (Rs.115), has been a gross underperformer. However, we remain bullish as it is the only peptide company in Asia with technology to manufacture peptides from the basic stage and is among the ten-peptide companies in the world. Recently, it has acquired a manufacturing facility from M/s. Aurobindo Pharma Ltd., in Medak District of Andhra Pradesh as a part of its expansion programme for commercialisation of Speciality APIs, Chiral Intermediates and key Organic Intermediates and Bulk Peptide raw materials. Moreover, it is planning to set up a manufacturing base in USA for catering to the regulated markets. For the June’06 quarter, its sales and net profit increased by 10% to 18 cr. and Rs.4.50 cr. respectively which may shoot up to Rs.100 cr. and Rs.23 cr. for FY07. At a P/E of less than 5, it’s a screaming buy.

On the back of discouraging numbers for the June’06 quarter, the share price of Hyderabad Industries Ltd. (Code: 509675) (Rs.311) has tumbled down sharply giving good opportunity for long term investors to get in. For FY06, its top-line grew by 10% to Rs.450 cr. whereas its net profit quadrupled to Rs.38 cr. reporting an EPS of Rs.53. This is in spite the fact that its Jasidih plant was shut down for 3 months due to a strike. Although its profit margin is under pressure due to stiff competition it will still report better numbers in absolute terms for FY07 as it has recently started the commercial production of asbestos cement sheets and accessories at its new unit located at eastern Uttar Pradesh. Moreover, it is implementing a Rs.100 cr. expansion programme by setting up of two fibre cement sheet units and one autoclaved aerated concrete blocks manufacturing facility. For FY07, it may a clock a turnover of Rs.500 cr. with net profit of Rs.40 cr. i.e. EPS of Rs.56 on its tiny equity of Rs.7.50 cr. Having a book value of around Rs.180, the scrip is ripe for a bonus and may also announce a stock split this fiscal.

In a short span of time, Electrotherm India Ltd. (Code: 526608) (Rs.243), a leading manufacturer of crucial induction melting furnace has grown and diversified aggressively to include steel and automotive business as well. Today, it also manufactures Sponge Iron, TMT Bars, Billets and Ductile Iron Pipes. But the biggest growth driver is its automotive division ‘Indus Elec-trans’ which manufacture electric vehicles and has already launched eco friendly bikes under the brand name ‘YOBykes’. These bikes run on rechargeable battery and don’t need petrol or licence or registration to drive. The company has a capacity to manufacture up to 1.2 lakh bikes per year and is planning to increase it to over 5 lakh bikes. For the June’06 quarter, its sales jumped 65% to Rs.91 cr. and net profit grew 50% to Rs.5.80 cr. The company is raising around Rs.100 cr. through preferential allotment route, which may dilute the equity to the extent of Rs.8.75 cr. For the full year FY07, it is estimated to record a turnover of Rs.425 cr. with net profit of Rs.28 cr. (excluding deferred tax), which works out to an EPS of Rs.32 on its diluted equity. A good bet for the medium to long-term.

Pricol Ltd - Rs.37.00

Establised in 1972, Pricol Ltd. (Pricol), formerly known as Premier Instruments and Controls Ltd., is a reputed manufacturer and supplier of automotive instruments enjoying more than 50% share in the domestic market. In fact, it is the undisputed leader in the dashboard industry with current capacity of more than one crore units. Apart from dashboards, it also manufactures speedometers, cables, switches, sensors, control valve assemblies, oil pumps, windshield washer motor kits, heater ventilation, air condition control units, disc brakes and other precision machined components. Pricol, this produces 14 products catering to the two-wheeler segment, 16 products for cars and MUVs segment, 7 products for trucks segment and 16 products for the tractors and other vehicles segment. The two-wheeler segment contributes about 48% of its revenue followed by cars and MUVs at 34%. Its clientele includes all the leading auto players such as Ashok Leyland, Eicher, Bajaj Auto, GM, Hero Honda, LML, Maruti, M&M, Tata Motors, Toyota, TVS, Yamaha etc.

Pricol has five huge plants spread across India with three plants near Coimbatore, one at Pune and one at Gurgaon. Importantly, Japanese auto component giant, Denso Corporation, is the joint venture partner and has invested 12.5% in the equity capital of the company. Pricol also exports about 12% of its turnover to USA, Canada, Mexico, South America, Europe, Turkey, Egypt, Middle East, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, etc. To cash in on the growing demand in the automobile sector, Pricol is expanding its capacity by setting up a plant in Indonesia and Uttaranchal. The Uttaranchal plant, which may be ready by January’07 will manufacture 10 lakh sets of speedometers, oil pumps, fuel sensors and gear systems for Bajaj Auto in the two-wheeler category and around one-lakh sets of instruments and field sensors for Tata Motors and Mahindra and Mahindra in the cars and MUV segment. The Indonesian plant is expected to start production by December’06 and will produce around 8,50,000 sets out of which around 2,50,000 sets will be supplied to TVS Motors and Bajaj Auto. Pricol also plans to set up a unit in Iran to supply instrument clusters.

Due to stiff competition in the domestic market, the company is concentrating on garnering overseas business. It is also in the process of opening marketing and sales offices in Europe and USA. For FY06, inspite of a rise in the top-line by 7% to Rs.482 cr., its net profit declined by 20% to Rs.33 cr. However for June’06 quarter it reported a decent set of numbers with sales registering 20% rise to Rs.133 cr. and profit improved by 30% to Rs.9.60 cr. Hence for FY07, it may post a turnover of Rs.525 cr. with net profit of Rs.40 cr. on its equity of Rs.9 cr., which will translate into an EPS of Rs.4.50 against the Re.1 face value of its share. Although the share price may not see a phenomenal rise in future, still 50% appreciation i.e. a price target of Rs.50 can be expected in 12-15 months.