Blue Bird (India) Ltd - 55.00 Rs

Incorporated in 1999 and promoted by Mr. Nitin Sontakke, Blue Bird India Ltd (BBIL) is one of the leading manufacturers of paper based notebook products such as students / exercise books etc. With promoters having rich experience of more than 30 years in printing, company has made a strong presence in western India thru its “Blue Bird” brand commanding 48% market share of the total organized segment across country. Broadly, company has segmented its business into three divisions - stationery, publication & commercial printing. In addition to finest quality notebooks, it also produce a range of office stationery products like executive notepads, diaries, arch-lever files, perforated pads, registers, filler papers and folders. Although notebook forms the core business with more than 80% revenue, BBIL has off late ventured into publishing academic textbooks and self study books for children apart from general publications in subjects such as ayurveda and biographies. It has its own in-house academic publishing team which works with external authors to develop content for educational books. Under commercial printing, it designs and prints annual reports, brochures, catalogues, offer documents, coffee table books, calendars, greeting cards, magazines, text books, publications etc

BBIL has got ultra modern factory set up in Pune which can be treated as one of the best in Asia. In order to cater the central and south India market efficiently, company has put up two new plants at Indore and Bangalore, which started production in last couple of months only. Besides, company has a strong distribution network of around 600 dealers and 9000 retailer spread across 18 cities in India. Moreover, company has just started to export its products to Ghana, Kenya and South Africa. Recently, it has been successful in acquiring a big order from a US based conglomerate and leading student materials manufacturer. Notably, BBIL has ambitious growth plans for publication division and intends to increase its share substantially in coming years. Hence it is entering into a joint venture with a well known publication bureau in Maharashtra. Accordingly it has imported specialized machine used in printing of glossy papers especially used in news paper supplements etc. To have a strong pan India presence and to penetrate in untapped market, BBIL has plans to add approximately 100 regional sales and marketing offices over the next five years. Meanwhile, it will also be augmenting its existing Pune plant’s manufacturing capacity thru a capex of approx 25 cr. It has recently acquired some land in Pune for the same.

In Nov 2006, company mobilized 92 crores thru IPO at 105/- Rs per share. Out of this nearly 60% has been utilized and balance is being deployed for capacity expansion and setting up regional offices. Fundamentally, company recorded sales and NP of 454 cr and 27 cr for FY07 respectively. Thus it posted an EPS of nearly 8 Rs on expanded equity of 35 cr on which company gave 12% dividend. In future, company may raise External Commercial Borrowings to the tune of $ 50 million by way of private placement. For FY08 it is estimated to clock revenue of 550 cr and PAT of 34 cr i.e. EPS of 10 Rs. However, the main growth is expected to come in FY09~FY10 due to full impact of expansion. Company has the potential to post 14 Rs EPS in FY09. Considering its IPO price of 105 Rs, book value of 50 Rs and 52 week H/L of 128/55 Rs, its one of the safest bet in such overheated market. Therefore long term investors are strongly recommended to buy at current levels as scrip can give 100% return in 12~15 months.

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In the textile segment, Garden Silk Mills (75.00) has posted stunning nos for the Sept qtr and the scrip is hitting new highs. It recorded 45% growth in sales to 435 cr but the NP zoomed up 130% to 17.75 cr registering an EPS of 4.60 Rs for the quarter alone. Company is one of the major players in the Indian polyester yarn and fabrics segment with strong brand name ‘Garden Vareli’. Importantly, it is backward integrated having second largest capacity to produce textile grade polyester chips in India. Few months back it signed a contract with CTIEI (China Textile Industrial Engineering Institute, P.R. of China) to set up a continuous polymerization plant with a capacity of 2,60,000 tons per annum of textile grade polyester chips which is expected to commence production by October, 2008. Besides, it also entered into an agreement with Oerlikon-Barmag of Germany and TMT of Japan for supply of a polyester yarn plant of a capacity of 55,000 tons per annum. Further, it has a capex plan of 240 cr for expanding its polycondensation and POY / FDY manufacturing capacities. Incidentaly, company is not into exports hence is not affected by the rupee appreciation. For financial year ending June 2008, it may clock a turnover of 1800 cr and PAT of 50 cr i.e. EPS of 13 Rs on equity of 38.30 cr. Despite having strong fundamentals and book value of 95 Rs, company is available at an enterprise value which is even less than its gross block.

Recently, Span Diagnostic (56.00) declared fantastic result as its sales grew by 25% to 18 cr but net profit shot up 60% to 1.70 cr for Sept quarter. Further for six months ending Sept’07 the picture is more interesting with sales up 55% to 32 cr and PAT up 375% to 2.50 cr. Notably, the company is a pioneer and trend-setter of high quality products used by pathology & clinical laboratories in the diagnostics industry and also one of the largest manufacturers of diagnostic reagents. Hence it supplies variety of instruments and consumables besides reagents and kits required by modern clinical laboratory. To strengthen its market share in overall diagnostic market, it has just now formed a new subsidiary especially for R&D of instruments. It has exclusive tie-ups with reputed companies worldwide for marketing, distributing and servicing diagnostic products in India. Moreover company also undertakes contract manufacturing of a wide range of quality reagents and kits in bulk for private labels. It may end FY08 with total revenue of 70 cr and PAT of 4.25 cr. This translates into EPS of 13 Rs on small equity of 3 cr. Scrip has the potential to double in a year’s time.

Bilpower (180.00) has once again come out encouraging set of nos for Sept quarter. Total revenue increased by 35% to 77 cr and net profit zoomed up 70% to 5.40 cr. It is one of the well known players in the field of manufacturing transformers of all types, electrical laminations, stampings and cores. Besides it’s a leading trader of CRGO & CRNGO and produces the largest range of transformer cores in India. For future growth, it tookover a private company namely Tarapur Transformers for 3.40 cr which has an installed capacity of 1500 MVA for repair of power transformers up to 200 MVA, 220 KV Class. Soon company is expected to start manufacturing power transformers also of its own. Besides, it acquired Sun Transtamp Private Limited, a company involved into manufacturing of electrical lamination. Importantly, Bilpower is foraying into transmission & distribution segment of power sector as it has been qualified as the ‘turnkey contractor’ for the EPC business by Maharashtra State Electricity Distribution Company Ltd. Further it is in the midst of setting up manufacturing activities for motor stampings in Wada, which is expected to commence operation by end of this calendar year. To fund its T&D venture, it intends to raise nearly 60 cr thru FCCB route in near future which may dilute the equity to extent of 30%. Meanwhile for FY08 it can register a topline of 300 cr and bottomline of 21 cr i.e. EPS of 23 Rs on current equity of 9 cr. Despite low promoter holding it’s a good bet for long term.

Last week, Bihar Caustic (60.00), a Aditya Birla group company reported excellet set of nos for the Sept qtr. Sales improved by 35% to 45 but PAT almost doubled to 14 cr due to better operating efficiency. With an impressive OPM of 51% it posted an EPS of 6 Rs for the quarter. Recently, company has set up an aluminium chloride project and is estimated to produce and sell about 12000 MT of aluminium chloride in FY08. It is also further expanding its caustic soda capacity from 225 to 265 TPD by addition of electrolysers as well by debottlenecking. Besides, it is putting up a stable bleaching powder plant at an estimated cost of Rs.7.50 cr to be operational by mid 2008. Accordingly for FY08 it may clock a turnover of 185 cr and profit of 40 cr which leads to an EPS of 17 Rs on equity of 23.40 cr. Thus the scrip is currently discounted by less thab 4x times. The EV/EBIDTA ratio of the company is also very low at 3x times. Considering reserves of 125 cr & gross block of 305 cr it’s a pure value buy at a present market cap of around 140 cr. The scrip can easily appreciate 50% in 9-12 months.

Lokesh Machines Ltd - 94.00 Rs

Established in1983 and promoted by Mr. Lokeshwara Rao - first generation entrepreneur & technocrat, Lokesh Machines Ltd (LML) is engaged in the design, development and manufacture of custom built special purpose machines(SPM) and general purpose CNC (computerized numerical controls) machines along with their components. From a modest beginning by handling job works, today company has emerged as an integrated machine tool manufacturer with operations in two main business segments namely machine tools and auto parts. Over a period LML has developed various range of SPMs including single and multi spindle machines, shuttle type, way type, linear and rotary indexing machines, linear transfer lines etc. Under the CNC segment, it manufactures horizontal and vertical machining centre, turning centre, milling and boring machines etc. And in the auto component sector, it has been concentrating on manufacturing / machining auto components like cylinder blocks, cylinder heads etc to original equipment manufacturers. Hence LML primarily caters to customers in the auto OEM, auto ancillaries and general engineering space. Presently, company derives 70% revenue from machining division whereas rest 30% comes from auto component division.

LML has five manufacturing units all located in Andhra Pradesh and under technical association with Grob Gmbh-Germany, Fagima-Italy, SCMS-Japan, AVM Angelini-Italy, Wenig Wemas-Germany & IMT Intermato-Italy. In the domestic market company supplies mainly to M&M, Ashok Leyland, Force Motors, Cummins, Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto, Bharat Forge, Kirloskar Oil Engines, Everest Kanto Cylinders etc. LML has a capacity for machining and supply of 1,20,000 units per annum each of cylinder blocks and cylinder heads, especially for M&M. And recently, it has set up an additional facility for machining of 40,000 units per annum each of cylinder blocks and cylinder heads, especially for Ashok Leyland. After successful trial runs, the production at this facility has commenced only from April 2007. Off late, LML has also made a foray in the overseas markets with orders from M/s FPT Industries Spa-Italy, Honda Motorcycles-Japan and HOWA-Japan. Further, its technical partner Wenig Wemas-Germany has also placed initial order of 100 machines worth 20 cr. So going forward company is looking to gradually increase its share from international market as well.

In April 2006, LML came out with an IPO at Rs.140 per share and raised Rs.42 cr. This entire proceed has been utilized for setting up new facility for Ashok Leyland and also to meet the cost of modernization and to upgrade the existing facilities for the manufacture of CNC machine tools. Financially, company is doing well and reported a sales and NP of 90 cr and 10.80 cr respectively for FY07. Hence it posted an EPS of more than 9 Rs on equity of 11.80 cr. For Q1FY08, it recorded 35% growth in sales to 19 cr whereas NP increased by 25% to 2.90 cr. The continuing growth in the domestic demand for machine tools both in the capital goods and auto component sectors offers an opportunity for further progress. Accordingly for FY08 it is expected to clock a turnover of 110 cr and PAT of 15 cr i.e. EPS of 13 Rs on equity of 11.80 cr. Therefore, the scrip is currently trading at a P/E ratio of merely 7x times which is extremely cheap for such a fast growing engineering company. Considering its 52 week H/L as 181/79 Rs and IPO price of 140 Rs the downfall risk is minimal from current levels. Investors are strongly recommended to buy at current levels as at a modest discounting by 14x times scrip can double in 12~15 months.

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Led by Mr. Ajoy Khanderia of Global Asia Partners, ORG Infomatics Ltd (85.00) has emerged as the niche player in converged IT and telecom space with expertise in various telecom technology domains such as CDMA, GSM, IPTV, DTH, Wi-Max & IP based solution. Company believes in inorganic growth and has been on acquisition spree for quite some time. It took over DGIT Solutions (Singapore) and Unified Technologies (Bangalore) apart from taking 18% equity stake in Six Dee Telecom Solutions. Besides, ORG Telecom, ORG DTH, ORG Singapore, ORG FZE (UAE) & ORG Inc (USA) are few of its other subsidiaries. Recently, it got a major breakthrough as it signed an agreement to acquire the satellite based business of Belgacom Group, Belgium which is the country’s national operator. To fund its growth plan, company intends to raise around 140 cr thru equity route in near future. On a consolidated basis it may end FY08 with total revenue of 375 cr and PAT of 20 cr excluding the recent takeover of Belgium business. This translates into EPS of 12 Rs on current equity of 17 cr. Although its equity will get diluted substantially going forward but the growth will be equally fast. A good bet for medium to long term/

Last week GM Breweries (95.00) came out with very encouraging set of nos for the Sept quarter. Although, sales improved by only 10% to 45 cr but NP shot up 60% to 4.70 cr on back of lower raw material cost. It recorded a healthy OPM of 18% against 14% last year. It is the single largest manufacturer of country liquor in the state of Maharashtra and enjoys virtual monopoly in the districts of Mumbai, Navi Mumbai and Thane. With the installation of additional bottling lines last fiscal, company now has the capacity to process 8.26 crores bulk litres of country liquor per annum. Hence it is expected to end FY08 with sales of 190 cr and NP of 15 cr which means an EPS of 16 Rs on equity of 9.40 cr. That means at CMP scrip is trading extremely cheap at a P/E ratio of merely 6x times against industry average of more than 50x times. Having a gross block of whopping 68 cr, low debt equity ratio, strong cash flow, decent margins etc, the company deserves much better discounting. At the current enterprise value of 100 cr it’s a screaming buy. Scrip has the potential to double in a year’s time.

Accurate Transformers (128.00) is engaged in manufacturing of power as well as distribution transformers ranging from 25 KVA to 50,000 KVA in upto 220 KV class. It also carries out rural electrification project which involves the complete setting up of electricity in remote areas including the laying of lines, poles and substations. Unfortunately, despite having installed capacity of more than 8000 MVA company is working at very low capacity utilization due to mounting debtors and shortage of funds. However, to cash on the boom in the power sector, management has now become very aggressive and is raising fresh capital to the tune of 17 cr thru equity route. Secondly, due to increasing demand of transformers and better operating efficiency, company is expected to improve its profit margin going forward. It may even grow at CAGR of 50% for next three years as far as bottomline is concerned. On a conservative basis, it can clock a turnover of 225 cr and PAT of 8 cr for FY08. This works out to an EPS of 27 Rs on current equity of 2.96 cr whereas EPS of 13 Rs on fully diluted equity of 6 cr. For FY09, it can report an EPS of 20 Rs which means scrip is discounted by only 6x times against its FY09 earnings. Long term investors are strong recommended to buy at current levels as share price can double in a year’s time.

Vakrangee Software (190.00) has expertise in document management service, printing management service and IT & IT enabled services. It has been handling election related projects for Election Commission of India for over a decade. It maintains records and issues electoral photo identity card for Maharashtra, MP, UP, Gujarat etc. For TCS, the company is doing Registrar of Companies (ROC) database management at 32 locations. With govt organizations moving rapidly towards computerization, company is now concentrating mainly on e-governance which has huge potential going forward. It reported stunning nos for the Sept qtr as its topline increased by 85% to 56 cr but PAT jumped up 165% to 12.75 cr posting an EPS of 6.50 Rs on current equity of 19.15. Currently, it has an order book of 170-180 crore to be executed over next 12 months. The company's aggressiveness can be judged from its gross block, which has tripled in FY07 to 160 cr from 53 cr last year. For FY08 it is estimated to report revenue of 200 cr and NP of 40 cr i.e. EPS of 19 Rs on fully diluted equity of 21.40 cr. Buy at sharp declines.

Phillips Carbon Black Ltd - 155.00 Rs

Established in 1960, Phillips Carbon Black Ltd (PCBL), part of well known RPG group is the pioneer and largest manufacturer of carbon black in the country. Nearly 95% of carbon black production is consumed by rubber and tyre industry, while the rest find application in plastics, ink, paints and dry cells. Currently, PCBL is the undisputed leader with a capacity of 270,000 MTPA which is almost 47% of the total installed capacity of carbon black in India. It has also established a strong goodwill in the global market with more than 25% revenue coming from exports to over 15 countries including China, Japan, Indonesia, Iran, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, Turkey, Philippines, Australia, New Zealand and East African countries. Its top international clients include Bridgestone group, Goodyear, Trellebrog, Loadstar and Danang Rubber, whereas in domestic market it supplies to Apollo, MRF, Ceat, Birla & JK group. Out of the total export of this powdery substance from India, 70% is made by company alone and in the domestic market it has an overall share of more than 40%. Incidentally, it is the first carbon black company in the world to receive carbon credits and is an ISO 9001 & ISO 14001 certified company.

PCBL has three manufacturing units located in Durgapur (140,000 MT), Kochi (35,000 MT) & Baroda (95,000 MT) of which all are working at 100% capacity utilization. Under technical collaboration with big international players and equipped with latest equipments from world’s best manufacturers, company has a proven capability to produce 24 grades of carbon black. To compliment this it has captive power generation facility at each unit with a combined capacity of 18.50 MW. To cash on the buoyant economic condition, PCBL has chalked out massive 350 cr expansion plan to increase the capacity by 125,000 tonne i.e. by nearly 50%. It is putting up a greenfield project at Mundra, Gujarat to produce 75,000 MT of carbon black alongwith 14 MW captive power plant. It is also expanding its Kochi capacity by 50,000 MT and is adding 12 MW power generation facility. Both these projects are estimated to complete between Sept - Dec 2008. Meanwhile, to de-risk its revenue model, a 30 MW power generation plant from waste gas is being constructed in Durgapur with an investment of 115 cr. This is scheduled to become operational from March 2008. Hence post all expansion it will have carbon black capacity of 395,000 MTPA and power generation capacity of 74.50 MW. However the most important factor for company’s growth is that it has re-negotiated the pricing formula with the customers, so as to built-in escalation clause. Henceforth, the company would be able to pass on any increase in input cost and will be able to maintain its profit margin.

The momentum of growth in the economy coupled with expansion plans announced by various tyre companies in India to cater to increasing demand from OEMs as well as the replacement market would increase demand for carbon black. Secondly, all the international biggies are shifting to Asian region to make it a tyre manufacturing hub due to cost and other factors. This augurs well for PCBL as company is looking to increase its share in international market. To fund its growth plan company raised around 50 cr thru pref allotment of 75 lac shares @ 66 Rs in Nov 2006. It has recently issued another 30 lac warrants @ 149 Rs to mobilize 45 cr in future. Financially, it made a strong turnaround for FY07 with OPM improving considerably to 9% from 4% in FY06. It is further expected to move up to 12.50% in current fiscal. Accordingly it may register sales of 1050 cr and PAT of 65 cr which translates into EPS of 23 Rs on fully diluted equity of 28.25 cr. Off late, as the scrip has seen a smart rally, investors are recommended to buy at sharp declines for a price target of 225 Rs in 12`15 months. Besides, the major raw material for the company i.e. carbon black feedstock has close relationship with crude oil prices. Although, the revised pricing formula has adequate flexibility to respond to such changes but still the rising crude oil price is always a cause of concern.