Chemfab Alkalies Ltd - 95.00 Rs

Incorporated in 1983 and promoted by Dr C H Krishnamurthi Rao, Chemfab Alkalies Ltd (CAL) is a reputed manufacturer of caustic soda, liquid chlorine, hydrogen gas, hydrochloric acid, sodium hypochlorite, bleach liquor and barium sulphate in south India. Infact, it boasts of being the first in the country to introduce pollution-free Membrane-Cell technology which became the trendsetter in the chlor-alkali industry. It is also the first company in India to manufacture barium sulphate from solid waste and even holds a patent for the same. It also produces industrial grade salt for captive consumption. The company’s products are consumed by variety of industries like aluminium, textiles, paper, soaps, PVC, water treatment, vanaspathi, etc. Post its amalgamation with Membrane Technologies Ltd in 2006, it now manufactures water purifying machinery & sells packaged drinking water under brand name “TEAM”. But most importantly, company has lately diversified into fast growing retail health care segment and has already opened ‘Team Health Shoppe’ in three locations at Chennai to market its own ‘Team Eubio’ care products as well as proven products from other manufacturers. Thru these outlets it offers a range of health care, body care, beauty care, skin care hair care and other nutritional food products. Its ‘Energy Herbal Water’ which can neutralize acidic wastes in the body and reduce weight has been a super hit and is witnessing strong demand. Presently, company derives 80% of revenue from chlor-alkali segment whereas balance 20% comes from water and heath care segment.

CAL plant is located on the east coast region about 500 mtrs from seashore at Kalapet in Pondichery. It has its own 110KV sub-station and receives power from Pondichery electricity department. Other than power and water, the key input for Chlor-Alkali plant is salt for which company has gone for backward integration and put up a salt field about 40 km from its manufacturing site. Notably, company has the lowest water consumption ratio for producing per ton of caustic soda. For FY07 it produced 41,027 MT of caustic soda against 38,725 MT in FY06. Incidentally, on its merger with Membrane Technologies, CAL has become the only manufacturer of multi bore hollow fibre ultra filtration membranes in India, the patents for which is held by Dr Rao Holdings - a Singapore based associate company. The international marketing of this special type membrane is done by global giant M/s Dupont. On the other hand, company has been successful in creating a good brand image and reputation as a quality bottled water manufacturer and is now spreading its marketing operations to Bangalore and Hyderabad as well. It is also getting lot of enquiries for franchise of ‘TEAM Health Shoppe’, but company prefers to have its own outlets and is looking out for suitable space, for additional outlets in Chennai and other important cities. On the manufacturing front, company has plans to increase its caustic soda capacity to 66,000 tonne a year in future. Besides, being the largest producer and seller of ultra pure hydrogen with 99.9999+ range, CAL has appealed to the government to employ compressed hydrogen gas as an automobile fuel, since it’s more safer, economical & environment friendly. In foreseeable future, it may also diversify into production of linear alkyl benzene, monochloro acidic acid, hydrogen peroxide and other chemicals from olefins.

Unfortunately, despite getting clearance from Pondichery govt, CAL’s desalination project is on hold due to protest from local fisherman. Also few months back, company has to suspend its production in caustic soda plant on account of some labor unrest. Accordingly, for the first six months the sales remain flat at 50 cr but NP declined by 25% to 8.25 cr. Hence the scrip hasn’t participated in this whole bullrun and is moving in a very narrow range. But it seems all the negatives have been factored in the share price and the risk reward now favors bulls. Secondly, with substantial additional caustic consumption coming up especially in the aluminium segment, the demand-supply scenario for caustic soda is expected to remain favorable in future. Also given the increasing distaste for synthetic products and high risk of side effects, people have started turning towards natural and herbal products for medicaments, cosmetics and nutrients, which augurs well for its health care division. To conclude, company can register sales of 110 cr and PAT of 16.50 cr for FY08 i.e. EPS of 18 Rs on equity of 4.59 cr having face value of 5 Rs per share. With a dividend yield of more than 5%, promoter holding 74%, P/E ratio at 5x times, gross block as 130 cr, the company is available fairly cheap at current enterprise value of approx 100 cr. Moreover it has the potential to register EPS of 22~24 Rs for FY09. Investors are strongly recommended to buy at current levels with expectation of 50% return in 12 months time.

STOCK WATCH

Despite all cats and dogs have rallied sharply in the recent bull run, share price of Sukhjit Starch (135.00) hasn’t moved anywhere for quite long time. Company is mainly engaged in manufacturing edible and non edible maize starch, dextrine, liquid glucose and dextrose monohydrate. It also produces sorbitol, maize oil, maize gluten, maize husk, high maltose syrup, oxidized/pregelatinized starch etc. It has an impressive clientele including corporates like Britannia, Dabur, Colgate, HLL, Heinz, Ballarpur, Berger paints, JCT, Mahavir Spinning, Wockhard etc. Although its Sept qtr were not that encouraging, still for H1FY08 it recorded 15% growth in sales to 85 and 40% increase in PAT to 10.30 cr posting an EPS of 14 Rs for six months. Notably, it is the only multi-locational group in India as of now with a combined installed capacity of 1,50,000 tons corn grind per annum. In July’07, company started commercial production at its new unit in HP which has enhanced the capacity by nearly 25% and is dedicated for high margin starch and derivative products especially for pharmaceutical industry taking shape in Baddi, Himachal Pradesh. On a conservative basis, it is expected to end FY08 with sales of 175 cr and NP of 18.50 which translates into EPS of 25 Rs on equity of 7.40 cr. Scrip has the potential to appreciate 30% in 6~9 months

Ironically, the share price of Rama Paper (28.00) which hit a high of Rs 59 in 2005 is hovering around half of that level in 2007, inspite of improvement in fundamaentals. Offlate company has increased its paper production capacity to 44500 TPA and is expected to enhance it to nearly 60000 TPA by March 2008. It is also putting up an additional line of paper manufacturing machine to produce tissue and poster paper with annual capacity of 18380 TPA under a capex of 24 cr. The civil and fabrication work is in progress for the same. But most importantly, company has put up 6 MW co-generation power plant for captive consumption which commenced operation recently and will lead to substantial saving in power and fuel cost. However, company reported lower sales for Sept qtr maybe due to some disruption in its manufacturing facility. Hence for FY08 it is estimated to clock a turnover of 80 cr and profit of 5.50 on back of higher operating margin. This can shoot up to 100 cr of sales and 8.50 of NP for FY09. With means an EPS of Rs 6 and 9 for FY08 and FY09 respectively on fully diluted equity of 9.70 cr. Last fiscal company raised around 16 cr thru equity route by making pref allotment to promoters and others @ 35 Rs. As on today promoters are holding 41% stake. At the CMP, company is available at an EV of 70 cr which is even less than its gross block of 79 cr. Buying strongly recommended as share price can shoot up 75 Rs in 12~15 months.

Although Deccan Cement has more than doubled, share price of Anjani Cement (36.00) is range bound since more than a year. Under the leadership of Mr. K V Vishnu Raju, company has made a strong turnaround in FY07 and is further growing at a healthy pace in FY08. It is in the process of continually increasing the capacities by modernization and up gradation. Last fiscal it installed balancing equipment and pollution reduction equipment to increase capacities and to reduce pollution. In line with its modernization and diversification plans, company acquired a grinding unit in an open auction conducted by A.P.I.D.C which has further augmented its grinding capacity. Notably, company has a captive limestone mine, captive power generation unit and state-of-the-art technology from Nihon of Japan. On the back of robust performance, company gave maiden dividend of 10% for FY07. For H1FY08 it registered 50% growth in sales to 59 cr and 60% rise in NP to 8.60 cr. On an estimated OPM of around 26~27%, it can record a PAT of 16 cr on topline of 125 cr for FY08. This works out to an EPS of 9 Rs on equity of 18.40 cr. Share price can easily appreciate 50% in six months or so. A screaming buy.

The core competency of Albert David (95.00) lies in the manufacture of bulk drugs, specialty formulations, herbal/ayurvedic products, disposable syringes & needles and intravenous (IV) solutions. It has technical collaboration with the world's largest manufacturer of amino acids, Ajinomoto Co. Inc. of Japan and with Roussel Morishita of Japan for manufacturing and marketing a wide range of crystalline amino acids, infusion solutions, oral solids and liquids in India. To maintain its market share, company is undergoing modernization-cum-expansion program in all its manufacturing units involving a capital expenditures of about Rs.52 crores. The last phase of this program is likely to be completed this fiscal itself. For H1FY08, its sales as well as profit grew by 20% to 89 cr and 6.90 cr respectively. In near future, company is planning to include some new products such as Alamin-Xtra - a nutritional supplement, Evaston - a gynaecological product, Opthalmological range - the eye care products and Betahistine - the antivertigo drug. It is also looking to launch the brand extension product like Actibile-SR and Ferrochelate-XT (the new iron compound haematinic). For FY08 it may clock revenue of 175 cr and NP of 12.50 cr which leads to an EPS of 22 Rs on equity of 5.71 cr. At a modest P/E ratio of 7x times, scrip has the potential to touch 150 levels in medium term

Stone India Ltd - 135.00 Rs

Incorporated in 1931 and a part of well known Duncan Goenka group, Stone India Ltd (SIL) is a multi-product engineering company and is basically serving the Indian railroad industry for over seven decades. Being a pioneer in brake systems and train lighting alternators, SIL is today the undisputed leader in locomotive brake systems and has a huge range of mechanical and electrical products for the railroad industry. It also manufacture few critical products for defence tanks and armoured vehicles. Currently, company generates about 90 per cent of its revenue from railways and has a market share of about 25-30 per cent. Broadly, company has segmented its product profile into following three categories:-

Carriage business group: SIL manufactures and deals in pneumatic equipments like distributor valves, brake cylinders, angle cocks, dirt collectors, hoses, slack adjuster apart from compact air braking system of carriage & freight stock for railway rolling stock operation. Recently it has developed its own patented beam mounted brake system for all types for freight wagons.

Locomotive business group: Under this category it produces & markets brake systems, centrifugal lube oil filter and regenerating type 'Vaporid' air dryers for Diesel and Electric Locomotives. In addition the company specializes in conversion of vacuum to air brake system in locomotives.

Train Power business group: SIL manufactures and supplies brushless alternators, electronic rectifier regulators and pantographs. Alternators are actually power generators used in the coaches and pantographs are used in the electric locomotives & electric multiple units to draw power from the overhead traction.

Other than the corporate office and the manufacturing facilities in Kolkata, SIL has branches and service centres located at all major towns and cities of India. To diversify its product portfolio, it has set up a greenfield facility at Nalagarh, Himachal Pradesh which is likely to go on stream this fiscal itself. Besides, it intends to put up a third plant somewhere in south. As company manufactures sophisticated & critical components involving high precision and accuracy, it has collaborated with several global industry leaders for its high technology products. Faiveley S.A. of France, SAB of Sweden, WABTEC Corporation of USA, SAB WABCO of France etc are to name a few. Off late, SIL has also ventured into the railway electronics business through introduction of a slew of high value power electronic products like inverters, converters and power supply system for coaches, locomotives, EMUs and metros. Accordingly, it made a technical collaboration with SMA Technologies AG, Germany for producing 180 kilovolt-amps (KVA) auxiliary power converter for railways. The other product of this new division viz end of train telemetry device is also been approved by railways. Earlier, SIL entered into an exclusive understanding with ZRJC, Guangzhou, China for manufacturing & supply of air conditioning system along with microprocessor based control system for passenger coach rolling stock & metro coaches.

In order to de-risk its business model, company is looking to increase the revenue from projects & services area for which it is executing a huge order for refurbishment and up gradation of 1115 wagons from ministry of defence. Notably, SIL is the only private company selected to execute this order which was earlier done by Indian railways. Moreover, company has already entered the Asian rail market and has appointed Telewira Tegas SDN BHD, Malaysia, as an exclusive agent for turnkey project work relating to freight car, passenger coach and locomotive up gradation and maintenance for Malaysian railways. It has also been exporting air brake system to internationally reputed wagon manufacturer in China. And importantly, couple of weeks back, SIL partnered with Sumitomo group Japan to gain the technical know-how for manufacturing of air springs which are technically far superior to the existing mechanical suspension system.

To conclude, the on going major restructuring of Indian Railways and large capacity expansion of its network augurs well for SIL which is well poised to take on all the future opportunities in line with its strength & core competencies. Indian Railways are planning an investment of gigantic Rs 5,00,000 crores in next few years, out of which Rs 1,00,000 Crores is meant for rolling stock & Rs 2,00,000 crores in private-public partnership projects. Hence, SIL will continue to grow at a scorching pace in future as well. For H1FY08, sales grew by 60% to 41 cr and NP increased by 70% to 6.90 cr. Despite such excellent performance, share price has tumbled down sharply from a high of Rs 220 Rs in Dec’06 to current levels. This may be because of the delay in commencement of new plant in HP and also due to the fact that in April 2006 warrants holders didn’t exercise their right to convert 14,32,000 warrants even at the low of price of 97 Rs as they had got the allotment in 2005. Well for FY08, company is expected to register sales of 100 cr and PAT of 13.50 cr i.e. EPS of Rs 18 on equity of 7.60 cr. Investors are strongly recommended to buy at current levels with a price target of 220 Rs (i.e. 60% appreciation) in a year’s time.

Vakrangee Software Ltd - 155.00 Rs

Incorporated in 1990, Vakrangee Software Ltd (VSL) is a leading provider of complete document and data management solutions encompassing large-scale data capturing & management, scanning, digitization and printing. It has three business segments, viz - document management services, printing management services and IT enabled services catering to various verticals like the central and the state government, banking and financial services industry, telecom, power, retail, aviation and others. Importantly, VSL has the largest scanning and variable data printing capacity in India with 5.6 million pages per day and 2.40 million pages per day respectively. Besides, company is a pioneer in multi-lingual application software and has developed versatile document management software, which can be used in 13 regional languages. After its Voters Identity Card software, Electoral Roll software, Voters Data entry Package, Cyber Saver etc, company is now in the advanced stage of developing Human Capital Management software & School ERP software which have tremendous potential in domestic market. Currently, VSL derives 75% of revenue from government business while the balance comes from private sector. Hence its clientele comprises of various election divisions, government & semi-government organizations, public authorities & local bodies, business associates and other private organizations.

Earlier, VSL was mainly into election commission work and database management but now the focus of the company is on e-Governance including document management projects and further to printing management projects. It boast of successfully completing land record digitization project of Ghaziabad development authority, digitization of patent records at Indian patent office, public facilitation office under MCA-21 and various other election projects for the state of Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat & UP. It has around 25 delivery centers in major cities across India. Apart from being an outsourcing partner to TCS & CMC, company has a tie up with Godrej & Boyce for jointly executing large election related projects at national and state level. In Dec 2006, VSL imported world’s fastest printing system - Kodak Versamark VT3000 which can print customized design from page to page. This machine has not only helped the company to execute all election commission related work in house but also enabled it to get more business from the emerging opportunities like printing documents (including bills) for telecom companies, electricity supply companies, retail groups etc. Recently it has entered into a strategic alliance with Eastman Kodak company to offer mass customization & personalization of customer communication practices in India and has been granted with the Kodak Gold Plus accreditation status. Maintaining records and issue of voter’s identity card for Maharashtra, MP, UP, Gujarat etc is an ongoing process for the company. For TCS, it is doing Registrar of Companies database management at 32 locations. To conclude, VSL presently has an order book of 175 cr to be executed in next one year.

Today, e-Governance is the fastest growing business opportunity as well as a major social responsibility initiative in India. It is further fuelled by the implementation of Right to Information Act (RTI) by govt of India, which makes it mandatory for all govt departments to have all the information in digital form. This includes not only conversion of historical data but also to keep present as well as future information in digital form. In view of the innumerable ministries, departments, offices at center and state level and other authorities, e-Governance has emerged as a huge opportunity for the IT industry in general and for the company in particular. Hence VSL with a rich experience and excellent track record is all set to capitalize this in coming years. On the back of stunning performance for Sept quarter, it may end FY08 with total revenue of 200 cr and PAT of 40 cr i.e. EPS of 19 Rs on fully diluted equity of 21.40 cr. Interestingly, despite doing a low skill work, company enjoys an OPM of more than 40% & NPM of 20% consistently. Accordingly for FY09 it can post an EPS of 26~28 Rs. So at a reasonable discounting by 12x times against the FY09 earnings, scrip has the potential to touch 320 Rs (i.e. 100% return) in 15~18 months.

STOCK WATCH

Couple of months back Ind Swift Lab (54.00) has received the USFDA approval for its API manufacturing facility at Derabassi Punjab for Clarithromycin. For other API’s, FDA inspection is expected to be done shortly. Presently, exports constitute around 45% of sales with company having presence in 45-50 countries - principally European countries, Asian countries, Latin American countries and Middle East. For future growth the company has a robust product pipeline of 25 products which includes blockbuster drugs like Clopidogrel (Anti-Cholestrol), Pioglitazone (Anti-Diabetic), Letrozole & Anastrozole (Anti-Cancer) Venlafaxine (Anti-Depressants) Quetipine & Aripirazole (Anti-Pshychotic). It has successfully filed over 72 DMFs with the US, Canadian, UK and European Drug Authorities. The DMF filing will facilitate the launching of the drugs by the company upon the patent expiry in those countries. Hence company has been aggressively expanding its capacity and has quadrupled its Gross Block to nearly 400 cr from 100 cr two years back. Considering the robust half yearly nos, it may end FY08 with sales of 450 cr and PAT of 22 cr. This translates into EPS of 9 Rs on fully diluted equity of 25.25 cr. With a book value of whopping 93 Rs and expected CEPS of 16~17 Rs, scrip is trading extremely cheap at a P/E ratio of merely 6x times. A screaming buy at is has the potential to double in 12~15 months.

Orient Ceramics (52.00) produces wall as well as floor tiles under the brand name “Orient” and offers one of the largest range by way of designs, colors, sizes, choice of surface finishes etc. It also makes special tiles under various collections branded as Artline, Midline, Vivaldi, Novista, Goemetricos & Egyptian Rustic collection which are unique and based on some theme, finish, pattern, cost etc. Besides, company has created a niche for itself thru “Rangoli” - its designer collection which is fusion of tradition with modernity. With the introduction of latest machinery, it has started producing high value glazed and polished vitrified tiles from current fiscal. Further, it has converted all manufacturing lines to fuel saving single fast firing technology. To increase the presence in south, it has opened a regional distribution centre in Bangalore apart from strengthening its dealership network. Fundamentally also company has been successful in maintaining its profit margin despite intense competition. On the back of expanded capacity to 220,000 TPA, it is estimated to clock a turnover of 240 cr and NP of 13 cr i.e. EPS of 12 Rs on equity of 10.50 cr. Which means the scrip is currently available at a discounting of hardly 4x times. Moreover, a company having a gross block of 157 cr, is available at an enterprise value of merely 115 cr which is extremely cheap by any standards. It’s an indirect bet on infrastructure play.

FCS Software (75.00) is basically providing customized software solutions to the clients based in US. Its revenue model is segmented into four divisions viz. IT consulting (55%), e-learning & digital consulting (25%), application support (10%) and infrastructure management services (10%). Apart from Sun Microsystems it is also a Microsoft certified solution provider. As US firms feel more secure in doing legal contracts with a fully US entity and in order to service its client more effectively, company has set up a subsidiary called FCS Software Solutions America Limited, incorporated in America in 2006. Here in India, company is increasing its overall capacities by putting up world class development centers at Chandigarh, Dehradun and two new centers in Noida at Sector 73 and Noida Special Economic Zone (SEZ). To summarize, currently it has 32,000 sq. ft. of space with 850 seats and additional 45,500 sq. ft. is under construction that would provide 1125 seats. To fund this expansion company is also looking to raise capital thru equity route in near future. On the flip side, it does not have any protection for US $ fluctuations against Rs as it doesn’t provide for any hedging of US $. Hence conservatively, on an estimated OPM of 14% (although it has registered 20% for H1FY08) it can earn a net profit of 20 cr on topline of 200 cr for FY08 on a consolidated basis. This works out to an EPS of 14 Rs on equity of 14.25 cr. With promoter holding of 69%, dividend yield of more than 3%, book value as 64 Rs and P/E ratio of 5x, it’s a value buy at current levels.

Rajendra Mechanical Industries (92.00), part of the Mumbai based REMI group, is a pioneer in manufacturing of stainless steel welded and seamless pipes & tubes. These pipes and tubes are used extensively in critical process industries such as refineries, petrochemicals, paper and pulp, fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, nuclear plants, etc. IOCL, IPCL, GNFC, IFFCO, Madras refineries, Mangalore refineries, Ranbaxy Laboratories are few among its reputed clientele. It has also developed specialized stainless steel tubing especially for critical power industry. To cash on increasing demand, company has been constantly expanding its production capacity which now stands at 7500 MTPA from 4500 MTPA in 2005. Notably, company has also ventured into power generation thru wind mill and has total installed capacity of 2.25 MW. With the expansion effect kicking it, company has reported stunning nos for the both the quarters of H1FY08. For the Sept qtr, sales jumped up 90% to 55 cr whereas NP tripled to 2.30 cr. Accordingly it can register a NP of 6.50 cr on sales of 200 cr for FY08 which leads to an EPS of 14 Rs on equity of 4.80 cr. However this profit is excluding extraordinary item of 1.50 cr - profit on sale of property. Otherwise the EPS works out to 17 Rs. Moreover it has the potential to earn an EPS of 20 Rs for FY09 from business operations only. A good bet for medium to long term