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!!! W E L C O M E !!!
In INDIA, people generally relate to stock market as “EASY MONEY” or “SATTA BAZAAR”. For them it’s purely a GAME or matter of sheer LUCK and nothing more than that. But seldom do they know, by following certain PRINCIPLES and taking INFORMED decision, this same platform has the power to take them from rags to riches. No doubt, it has a certain amount of RISK attached to it. But every business or investment has it. What more, the Finance Ministry has already made the long term capital gain as TAX FREE whereas the short term capital gain is taxed at merely 10%. On the economic front, India’s GDP is growing and is expected to grow at scorching pace of more than 8%. Unfortunately, even today our market is being ruled and dominated by FIRANGI’s money. But I can see, the day is not far when our general PUBLIC will change its perception and start putting MOST of their savings in equities as an ** Investment **.
Remember, "K N O W L E D G E" and "P A T I E N C E" are the key to success.
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SAARTHI

Sensex (LIVE- Intraday)

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Friday, January 9, 2009

Small & Beautiful

Yuken India (60.00) is one of the reputed manufacturers of power saving hydraulic pumps & valves which are very popular in heavy engineering industry as effective means of automation and hence find extensive use in various key sectors like machine tools, material handling equipment, construction machinery, drill rigs, automobiles, defence, steel, power & cement plants, plastic machinery etc. Besides it also manufactures complete hydraulic power units as per customer specifications, cylinders, parison controllers, actuators, accumulators and power packs. Due to phenomenal demand, company has doubled its hydraulic casting products capacity to 2400 TPA and is further augmenting it to 6000 TPA within next couple of year. Besides it made a tie up with Hydrocontrols SPA Italy to produce and market state-of-the-art mobile control valves especially for agriculture, construction, earth moving and lifting machineries. Fundamentally, from the last two quarters company’s margin came under pressure due to increase in input/raw material cost and sharp depreciation in rupee. But with the recent fall in metal prices across the board, its margin will improve in coming quarters. So despite dismissal performance for H1FY09, it may end FY09 with topline of Rs 100 cr and bottomline of Rs 2.75 cr. This translates into EPS of Rs 9 on a tiny equity of Rs 3 cr. If things get better it can report an EPS of 15~20 for FY10. Share price of this MNC Associate can easily appreciate 50% within a year.

Being a 67% subsidiary of Honda Motor Co. Japan, Honda Siel (150.00) is the undisputed leader in the field of portable generators with its “HONDA” brand commanding more than 70% market share. Infact company boasts of launching India’s first LPG run gensets which is doing extremely well along with its super silent series. For the first time company has achieved the sales volume of over 100,000 Units (112,517 units) in domestic markets for FY08. At the same time to reduce the input cost, company has indigenised few of the critical parts of engine which it use to import earlier. Thus it has successfully reduced the import content to 19% from 22% and is further slated to bring it down to 15% in the current year. Moreover to consolidate the manufacturing operations company is shifting its Rudrapur (Uttaranchal) plant to its factory at Greater Noida in Uttar Pradesh. Although it may disrupt the production in short term but surely will beneficial in long term. Considering its encouraging performance for H1FY09 it may register sales of Rs 275 cr and PAT of Rs 24 cr i.e. EPS of Rs 24 on equity of Rs 10 cr. Financially, it is not only a debt free but a cash rich company holding more than Rs 100 cr as liquid cash. So at current market cap of Rs 150 cr investors are effectively getting this MNC company for Rs 50 cr i.e. at Rs 50 per share. Due to current market sentiment, its share price has fallen 50% which may motivate the foreign promoters to buy back and delist the company from Indian bourses. In case they don’t opt for delisting, then may give handsome bonus in FY10 being its silver jubilee year. A solid buy.

Transformer & Rectifiers (150.00) is one of the leading manufacturers of power & distribution transformers, furnace transformers, rectifier transformers and specialized transformers. It currently manufactures transformers up to 220 kV class and has an installed capacity of 7,200 MVA transformers per annum. To cash on the boom in power sector, company is setting up a Greenfield plant in Moraiya, near Ahmedabad with an installed capacity of 16,000MVA. The new plant, expected to be operational by March’09 would be capable of manufacturing transformers upto 756kV class, though the company initially intends to manufacture transformers of 220kV and 400kV classes. As of now, company has order book position of Rs nearly Rs 400 cr, out of which 70% comprises of power transformers. For the H1FY09 it has registered 55% increase in sales to Rs 195 cr and 75% jump in net profit to Rs 22 cr. Accordingly it may end FY09 with sales of Rs 400 cr and NP of Rs 36 cr i.e. EPS of Rs 28 on current equity of Rs 12.90 cr. Importantly, it will start reporting substantial growth from FY10, as new plant will begin operations by then.
Part of Aditya Birla group company, Bihar Caustic (30.00) is among the leading caustic soda producer in the northern and eastern region of the country. Besides, it also produces liquid chlorine, hydrochloric acid, sodium hypochlorite, compressed hydrogen and has even ventured into aluminum chloride. Recently it has also set up a 25 TPD stable bleaching powder (SBP) plant as a value added product for chlorine utilization. As power constitutes one of the major input cost, company has put up its own 30 MW coal based captive power plant. Considering market condition and demand, company is augmenting the capacity of its caustic soda plant from 265 TPD to 300 TPD at a capital investment of Rs 30 cr. Although company is vulnerable to caustic soda price movement, but with Hindalco being its parent company & biggest customer, the margin of safety is high. Notably, company enjoys the highest operating margins among it peers - even better than Gujarat Alkalies and Chemfab Alkali. Financially company is doing excellent, although it reported drastic fall in profit for Sept’08 qtr as the boiler of the power plant tripped due to mal functioning of safety device and hence company has to purchase power from outside for time being. Still it may end FY09 with topline of Rs 200 cr and NP of Rs 38 cr i.e. EPS of Rs 16 on equity of Rs 23.40 cr. Apart from all this, company is contemplating to rechristen itself as Aditya Birla Chemicals (India) Ltd.

Wednesday, January 7, 2009

3i Infotech Ltd - Rs 35.00


3I Infotech Ltd

Established in 1993 by ICICI Bank, 3i Infotech (3i) has progressed over the years from a back office processing unit of the ICICI group to a technology company providing IT services and solutions to over 600 clients in more than 50 countries through 24 offices worldwide and 10 development centres in India. Infact it has emerged as the fourth largest Indian software products company offering a comprehensive range of software products & solutions primarily for banking, insurance, capital markets, mutual funds, telecom, manufacturing, retail & distribution industries. In addition, it offers a broad range of software services such as custom software development, IT consulting, enterprise application integration (EAI), business process outsourcing (BPO), managed IT Services, and specialized services such as product re-engineering, compliance consultancy, data warehousing, business intelligence etc. Besides, 3i is recognized as one of the major national players in the e- Governance consultancy space in India. Importantly, company derives 50:50 revenues from products and services which differentiate it from other IT companies. However, now the revenue mix is getting skewed more towards services with major growth driver being BPO. Premia, Kastle, Amlock, iBoss, Data Scan, Awacs, Mfund, Veda, Xroadz etc are few of its popular software products for core banking, insurance, stock exchange surveillance, treasury, risk & wealth management, mutual funds etc. It also has an ERP product suite, providing solutions for the retail, manufacturing, distribution, trading, fashion, and automotive, pharmaceutical and chemical industries. At the same time company provides complete end-to-end outsourcing solutions to various industries mainly in the domestic market and specializes in non-voice based BPO services. Due to its derisking business strategy company is not dependent on any one segment and has well diversified revenue model. Presently banking products constitutes 12%, Insurance products 9%, Capital Market products 11%, ERP 3%, technology services 33% and BPO/Transactions processing constitutes the rest 32%. 3i’s quality certifications include SEI CMMI Level 5 for software business and ISO 9001:2000 for infrastructure services and BPO operations.


Geographically, 3i derives around 34% revenue from South Asia, 29% from USA, 15% from Western Europe, 14% from Middle East & Africa and the balance 8% from Asia Pacific region. Apart from ICICI group being its largest customer, 3i boast of serving international biggies like Prudential Assurance, Finansa, AIG, Emirates Bank, RAK Bank, HP, GSK, Al Ansari, Solidarity Islamic Insurance, Commercial America Insurance, Standard Chartered, Deutsche Bank, Pidilite Industries etc. In order to beat the competition and grow at a rapid pace, company is betting high on inorganic route and has adopted an acquisition-led strategy to acquire new capabilities and foray into new geographies. In the last 2~3 years, 3i has made dozens of acquisitions globally as well as domestically. Ironically, it has more than 50 subsidiaries, step down subsidiaries and associates in total. While acquiring, the challenges are assimilation, integration and deriving benefits of synergies, in which 3i has been quite efficient.On the organic growth side, 3i has set up its first International Data Centre (IDC) in Chennai last year, which offers managed hosting services for applications and disaster recovery solutions. It is also in the midst of opening 255 new service centres in tier-II and tier-II cities to help banks and financial institutions in decreasing the processing time for various back office operations. These centre which will constitute a 'hub and spoke' model will be staffed by experts who will specialize in transactional services outsourcing related to processing credit cards, isurance applications, contact point verification, soft collections, cheque clearing services, reconciliations, etc. On the other hand company has bagged a huge contract from Central govt for setting up over 12,000 kiosks, spread across various states in India, for providing citizen services centers to be used for dispensing G2C(Government to Citizen) and B2C (Business to Customer) services. The pricing model for this e-governance project is based on the frequency of each service transactions taking place across kiosks. Recently, 3i has made a strategic tie up with ICICI Lombard, Airtel and Max Newyork Life to open 12,500 retail stores in rural areas to offer bouquet of retail services in general insurance, telecom and life insurance sector respectively. The company may invest Rs 200 crore for the complete project and would earn commission on per transaction basis.Currently, the order book for the company stands at about Rs 1300 crore comprising of about 40% from product business, 38% from IT and balances from transaction business. And most importantly, 3i business has been affected to a very limited extent because of US turmoil and bankruptcy. However if the world economy continues to be in recession, then it will slowdown company’s future growth rate. To summarize, 3i has a well diversified and a de-risked business model in terms of offerings (products/services nearly 1:1 with coverage of entire BFSI spectrum), geography (no country > 30% of revenues) and customers (ICICI Bank and other Top 10 clients’ concentration has been on a decline). To fund its various acquisitions, company has raised nearly Rs 175 cr and Rs 400 cr in April’07 & July’07 respectively thru FCCB route which are yet to be converted into equity. After reporting an EPS of Rs 14 for FY08 & encouraging performance for H109 on a consolidated basis, 3i is all poised to end FY09 with total revenue of Rs 2100 cr and bottomline of Rs 200 cr. This translates into EPS of Rs 15 on current equity of Rs 131 cr. Considering the CMP, the bond holder may not opt for conversion and the whole FCCB may come up for redemption in 2012. From the high of Rs 160 in Jan’08, the scrip has fallen almost 80% and the company is now available at decent valuation. Despite company having nearly Rs 2000 cr as debt (incl. FCCB) on its book, investors are recommended to buy at current levels as scrip can easily appreciate 50% within 9~12 months.


Click here to download Report (PDF)

Saturday, January 3, 2009

STOCK WATCH

With more than dozen of popular brands, JK Paper (17.00) is India’s largest producer of branded papers and commands 40% market share in branded cut size papers. It is engaged in production of writing & printing paper and has recently ventured into high-end coated packaging boards. It operates two integrated plants in India with an total installed capacity of 180,000 TPA. Of late it has setup Rs 300 cr state-of-the art multi layer packaging board plant with an installed capacity of 60,000 TPA, thereby taking the total installed capacity to 240,000 TPA. Notably, company has one of the strongest distribution networks which include 11 warehouse, 140 distributors & 2500 Dealers covering the remotest corners of India. Moreover, it is exporting to more than 40 countries including Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Middle East, Africa, Australia, Singapore, Malaysia etc. For H1FY09 it has reported 40% growth in sales to Rs 546 cr but PAT remained flat at Rs 19 cr due to provisioning of unrealised foreign exchange loss of Rs 8.40 cr. At the same time company didn’t recognize Mark to Market unrealised gains on currency and interest rate swaps amounting to Rs 13.50 cr. Accordingly for FY09 it may clock a turnover of Rs 1100 cr and net profit of Rs 35 cr leading to an EPS of Rs 4.50 on current equity of Rs 78.20 cr. Although its debt equity ratio and interest cost is alarmingly high, investors can accumulate at sharp declines as it can appreciate 50% within a year.

Orient Papers & Industries (23.00) is a diversified company engaged in manufacturing of cement, paper and electrical appliances. It derives 60% of total revenue and 90% profit from cement segment which has an installed capacity of 3.40 million tonne. With its popular brands 'BIRLA A1’ and ORIETAL GOLD’ and having main market as Maharashtra and AP, company’s cement division is reportedly doing well. Infact to increase its market share, company is in the midst of augmenting its capacity to 5 million TPA by April 2009. It is also setting up a 50 MW captive power plant to bring down its power cost. At the same time on the back of strong demand for tissue paper, it is expanding its tissue paper manufacturing capacity from current 10,000 TPA to 30,000 TPA by April 2009. Having a market share of over 17% in the organized sector, its ORIENT PSPO brand of fans are quite popular. To cash on this brand, company has ventured into lighting products also and is now setting up a up a modern manufacturing facility for Compact Fluorescent Lamps at its Faridabad. Financially, in the last two years company has repaid most of its loan and has significantly brought down its total debt to Rs 165 cr from Rs 435 cr in 2006. As a result, it has a very healthy debt equity ratio of 0.16x times. For FY09, it may clock a turnover of Rs 1350 cr and PAT of Rs 150 cr i.e. EPS of Rs 8 on equity of Rs 19.30. Scrip can easily appreciate 50% within a year.

Emco Ltd (42.00) is the third largest manufacturer of transformers in India and a leading player in electronic energy meters and turnkey electrical projects It offers widest transformers range from 5 kVA, 11kV right up to 315 MVA, 400 kV for power generation, transmission & distribution. It is one of the leading players in manufacturing special application transformers like furnace transformers (for Steel Industry), large rectifier transformers (for Chemical Industry) and traction and locomotive transformers (for Railways). With acquisition of Urja Engineers Limited, company can now construct EHV Power Transmission Lines upto 765 kV on a total turnkey basis and boasts of having a tower manufacturing facility up to 45000 MT/Annum. To maintain its growth momentum, company has decided to set up a transformer manufacturing plant in South Africa to meet the growing demand in the African region and neighboring countries. Presently company has an impressive order book position of Rs 1300 cr. For the latest Sept qtr sales grew by 25% to Rs 231 cr and net profit improved by 10% to Rs 11.30 cr. Accordingly it is expected to clock a turnover of Rs 1150 cr and PAT of Rs 58 cr for FY09. This translates into EPS of Rs 10 on current equity. At a modest discounting by 8x times share price can double within a year.

Patels Airtemp (30.00) is engaged in the manufacture and sale of extensive range of heat exchangers such as shell & tube type, finned tube type and air cooled heat exchangers, pressure vessels, air-conditioning and refrigeration equipments and turnkey HVAC projects in India & marketing of equipments even outside India. It has technical collaboration with M/S. TEK FINS Inc. USA for design and manufacture of air cooled heat exchangers. It supplies to core industrial sectors like power, refineries, fertilizers, cements, petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, textiles and chemical Industries. For future growth company is concentrating more on high value added engineering products and has even got its product the coveted ASME `U' Stamp authorization. Few months back it bagged an order of Rs 16 cr from Essar oil and presently boasts of having an order book of nearly Rs 50 cr. For H1FY09, company has done exceedingly well as its sales jumped up 40% to Rs 35 cr whereas profit shot up 50% to Rs 3.40 cr. Accordingly for entire year it may report sales of Rs 65 cr and PAt of Rs 5 cr leading to an EPS of Rs 10 on equity of Rs 5 cr. At a modest discounting by 5x times scrip can easily appreciate 50% within a year.

Friday, January 2, 2009

Small & Beautiful

Indo Asian Fuse Gear (35.00) manufactures wide range of electrical circuit protection equipment including distribution boards, switch boards, switch panels, fuse switches, MCCBs, HRC Fuses, MCBs, RCDs, etc. Besides, it’s one of the largest manufacturers of CFLs and MCB’s in India. With having 8 manufacturing units its products are available in more than 80 countries around the world. Domestically, it has pan-India presence with 30 offices, 550 authorized distributors and over 15000 retailers selling its products across the length and breath of the country. To capitalize the ongoing boom, it is diversifying into power distribution business on behalf of state electricity board on franchise basis. Lately, it has forayed into cables & wires manufacturing business as well with a planned investment of 100 cr in phases. For the higher end segment, company is setting up a plant in Haridwar under a joint venture with Simon Holding (Spain) for manufacturing home and building automation products for the first time in India. At the same time it is putting up a facility in Saudi Arabia thru a tie up with Saudi National Glass for production of Compact Fluorescent Lamps (CFLs) and High Intensity Discharge Lamps (HID Lamps). For FY09 it is expected to clock a turnover of Rs 300 cr and PAT of Rs 10 cr on a conservative basis which works out to an EPS of Rs 7 on current equity of Rs 15.30 cr. The recent fall in copper and other metal prices will have a positive impact on the bottomline going forward. So although it has a bit high debt equity ratio coupled with longer cycle of receivable, still it’s a value buy at an EV of Rs 150 cr.

Patels Airtemp (30.00) is engaged in the manufacture and sale of extensive range of heat exchangers such as shell & tube type, finned tube type and air cooled heat exchangers, pressure vessels, air-conditioning and refrigeration equipments and turnkey HVAC projects in India & marketing of equipments even outside India. It has technical collaboration with M/S. TEK FINS Inc. USA for design and manufacture of air cooled heat exchangers. It supplies to core industrial sectors like power, refineries, fertilizers, cements, petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, textiles and chemical Industries. For future growth company is concentrating more on high value added engineering products and has even got its product the coveted ASME `U' Stamp authorization. Few months back it bagged an order of Rs 16 cr from Essar oil and presently boasts of having an order book of nearly Rs 50 cr. For H1FY09, company has done exceedingly well as its sales jumped up 40% to Rs 35 cr whereas profit shot up 50% to Rs 3.40 cr. Accordingly for entire year it may report sales of Rs 65 cr and PAt of Rs 5 cr leading to an EPS of Rs 10 on equity of Rs 5 cr. At a modest discounting by 5x times scrip can easily appreciate 50% within a year.

Gujarat Apollo Industries (60.00) is into manufacturing and after sales service of equipments for road building industry like asphat plants, pavers finishers, wet mix plants, bitumen sprayers, compaction equipment, road making machineries, crushing & screeing machines etc. It controls more than 60% of the market in the product segments in which it operates, with over 1,400 customers and an equipment population of around 3,500 units. Besides it also regularly exports to countries like Saudi Arabia, African countries, Afganistan, Australia, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Due to robust demand company has been regularly expanding its capacity and earlier has even entered into a technical collaboration agreement with a German company to manufacture Jaw Crushers, Impact Crushers, Wheeled/ Crawler mounted/ Skid mounted Crushing plants, Grizzly Feeders, Screens, Conveyors, etc. Although insignificant currently, company also undertakes construction activity. To consolidate its position, it has been making investments in its associate companies and has already made Apollo Earthmovers and Apollo Industrial Products Ltd as its subsidiaries. In current fiscal, another group company called Apollo Construction Equipments Ltd is expected to come under its fold. Hence on a consolidated basis for FY09 it may clock a turnover of Rs 275 cr and NP of Rs 32 cr which translates into EPS of Rs 20 on expanded equity of Rs 15.75 cr. A strong buy as share price can easily appreciate 50% within a year.

With more than dozen of popular brands, JK Paper (17.00) is India’s largest producer of branded papers and commands 40% market share in branded cut size papers. It is engaged in production of writing & printing paper and has recently ventured into high-end coated packaging boards. It operates two integrated plants in India with an total installed capacity of 180,000 TPA. Of late it has setup Rs 300 cr state-of-the art multi layer packaging board plant with an installed capacity of 60,000 TPA, thereby taking the total installed capacity to 240,000 TPA. Notably, company has one of the strongest distribution networks which include 11 warehouse, 140 distributors & 2500 Dealers covering the remotest corners of India. Moreover, it is exporting to more than 40 countries including Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Middle East, Africa, Australia, Singapore, Malaysia etc. For H1FY09 it has reported 40% growth in sales to Rs 546 cr but PAT remained flat at Rs 19 cr due to provisioning of unrealised foreign exchange loss of Rs 8.40 cr. At the same time company didn’t recognize Mark to Market unrealised gains on currency and interest rate swaps amounting to Rs 13.50 cr. Accordingly for FY09 it may clock a turnover of Rs 1100 cr and net profit of Rs 35 cr leading to an EPS of Rs 4.50 on current equity of Rs 78.20 cr. Although its debt equity ratio and interest cost is alarmingly high, investors can accumulate at sharp declines as it can appreciate 50% within a year.

Thursday, January 1, 2009

Smart Investments

Orient Paper & Industries Ltd
(Click here to download PDF report)


Micro Technologies Ltd
(Click here to download PDF report)