Genus Power Infrastructure Ltd - Rs 200.00

Founded in 1994 Genus Power Infrastructure Ltd (GPIL) erstwhile Genus Overseas Electronic Ltd is amongst the leading integrated metering solutions' providers and the pioneer in implementing AMR (Automatic Meter Reader) technology. It manufactures wide range of high-end programmable multi-functional intelligent single phase & three phase electronic meters with in-built advanced security and anti-tamper features such as AMR enabled meters, trivector meters, panel meters, time of the day meters, audit meters, etc. But importantly, over the last few years GPIL has significantly transformed itself from only a meter manufacturer to an entrenched power infrastructure player. It now derives more than 50% revenue from EPC power T&D projects where it provides absolute solutions for power transmission & distribution system. As a step forward, GPIL has also launched IT enabled distribution transformer metering system, feeder monitoring and management system, smart street light management system with value added software application for providing end to end solutions for energy management. Catering to giants like Reliance Energy, Tata Power, BSNL, BEL, DRDO, ITI and several state electricity boards, GPIL currently operates in following four verticals.

· Metering Solutions: GPIL manufactures high end programmable, multi functional & intelligent single phase and three phase meters with in-built advanced security and anti tamper feature. It deals in all types of electronic meters such as residential meters, industrial meters, agricultural meter, substation meters, audit meters, grid meters, group meters, special meters (prepaid / rail mounted) etc. It specializes in providing AMR solutions for comprehensive billing using PLCC, RF, GSM and GPRS technologies which ensures drastic reduction in power pilferage, less AT&C losses, effective load management, improvement in quality of power supplied, customer satisfaction and maximization of revenue generation.

· Engineering Construction & Contracts: GPIL has vast technical expertise for commissioning new substations (design, engineer, supply, installation, erection, testing and commissioning sub-stations) or working out capacity augmentation, renovation and modernization of existing substations. Being an EPC contractor it also executes turnkey T&D projects like setting up transmission towers, execution of civil work, laying of cables, installation of transformers etc. Company also undertakes rural electrification projects, energy accounting and auditing at all distribution levels, comprehensive billing solutions for utilities etc. Apart from power sector, company also provides SCADA solutions for water suppliers and industrial automation.

· Power Backup Solutions: GPIL boast of successfully introducing most advanced Sure Sine Wave inverter technology in India. Its revolutionary ASIC technology customizes wave form needed by different appliances hence ensuring 100% of their safety. It makes several inverters in the range of 400 VA to 100 KVA and for high load electronic system, it provides home UPS, online UPS and high frequency & line interactive UPS in the range of 3 KVA to 100 KVA. Although on a small scale, GPIL has also forayed into renewable energy segment with products like solar panel, solar inverters and solar water heater. Getting itself backward integrated and to offer complete power backup solutions, it is contemplating to launch a full range of batteries (lead acid, tubular, SMF) under the “GENUS” brand name.

· Hybrid Microcircuits: GPIL manufactures superior hybrid microcircuits which are used in all electronic components and find vast application across all the industries. The bulky printed circuit boards are becoming outdated and are now aggressively getting replaced with miniature hybrid microcircuits. Company has advanced design software such as VISULA, OrCAD for design of hybrid microcircuits and PCBs.

GPIL perhaps has one of the biggest manufacturing units of energy meters and power electronics in the country with its two plants located at Jaipur (Rajasthan) and Haridwar (Uttranchal). With a production capacity of 2 million pieces, company has till now installed more than 10 million electronic meters globally. Of late, to integrate its EPC business company has set up a new facility at Alwar (Rajasthan) for manufacturing of poles, distribution transformers, etc. with an investment of Rs 50 cr. It also entered into two joint ventures in Brazil to manufacture electronic energy meters & provide state-of-art AMR technology. Meanwhile it continues to export its product to over 20 countries and is now focusing meter export to SAARC, Middle East, African and Latin American countries, where power reforms are taking place in a big way. Thus GPIL has become a global player with manufacturing facilities in India & Brazil, marketing offices in Singapore & USA and a full fledged sourcing office in China.

Presently, GPIL has an order book position of Rs 1100 cr which is almost twice its FY09 turnover. Besides it has participated in tenders of nearly Rs 1200 cr, out of which it is ´L1´ bidder in tenders worth Rs 89 cr only. Sarcastically, these figures are way lower than last year bidding of Rs 8000 cr and L1 bidder of Rs 650 cr. As per unconfirmed reports, due to some execution as well as payment problems, company has cut down the bidding process significantly. This comes on the back of the fact that company recently wrote off Rs 36 cr as various deduction made by its customers on earlier sales of multiple years. As company provided this extraordinary expense only in audited accounts, the NP plummeted to merely Rs 13 cr against Rs 51 cr as unaudited net profit. So according for FY09 it reported audited sales of Rs 556 cr and audited PAT (after extraordinary item) of Rs 13 cr leading to an EPS of Rs 8.50 on equity of Rs 14.80 cr. However for Q1FY10 it reported 20% growth in revenue to Rs 120 cr but bottomline remained flat at Rs 8.00 due to higher interest cost. Thus it is expected to clock a turnover of Rs 700 cr and PAT of Rs 50 cr for FY10 i.e. EPS of Rs 34 on current equity. As scrip doesn’t look very cheap at current EV of Rs 600 cr, investors are advised to buy at sharp declines for a price target of Rs 280 in 12~15 months.

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Recently, Rama Paper (18.00) has started the commercial production at its new fourth unit with an installed capacity of 16320 TPA for tissue and poster paper. With this the production capacity of the company has now increased by nearly 40% from 44000 TPA to 60000 TPA. Currently company is working at almost 100% capacity utilization and has targeted to achieve 80% utilization for the new plant. So for FY10, it is estimated to overall record a ~25% volume growth. Moreover, company is already in the midst of modernization and up gradation of its existing three units. Further company is planning to get itself backward integrated and has accordingly bid for UP Co-operative sugar mill. For long term future growth company has aggressive plans, as it intends to double its total capacity by setting up 54,750 TPA Kraft paper manufacturing facility. Against the gross block of Rs 115 cr it has debt to the tune of Rs 63 cr leading to a debt equity ratio of 1.55x times. Last week company also took the shareholders approval to convert the preference shares into equity @ Rs 15 per share. This will lead to 35% equity dilution taking the equity share capital to Rs 13 cr. Although management claims to achieve a sales of Rs 150 cr and PAT of Rs 10 cr for FY10, but on a conservative estimate of 15% OPM it may register sales of Rs 130 cr and PAT of Rs 5 cr leading to an EPS of Rs 4 on diluted equity of Rs 13 cr. Ironically, management has not included the “Additional information pursuant to the provisions of Part IInd of Schedule VI of the Companies Act,1956” which is mandatory and relates to production, sales, raw material cost etc in the Annual Report 2008-09. Aggressive investors can buy for short term gain.

International Combustion (230.00) is a leading manufacturer of sophisticated plant and machineries like vibrating screens, feeders, sizers, conveyors, spiralling belt elevators, scooping belt conveyers, apron feeder, mining haulages etc for the core industries such as mining, steel, cement, petrochemical, construction, sugar, power, textile, paper, rubber, pharma, chemicals etc. It also offers complete grinding, classfication and drying system which can reduce many products by 95~98% or refine them below 10 microns. Under license from Danfoss Bauer, Germany, company markets comprehensive range of geared motors, gear boxes and electric motors. For FY09 it reported a topline of Rs 99 cr (up 5%) and bottomline of Rs 10 cr (down 15%) posting an EPS of Rs 41 on a very tiny equity of Rs 2.40 cr. Recently, company has acquired the global patent rights for the "Omni Screens" for all countries except South America from the collaborator M/s IMS of South Africa. Besides it has entered into a new agreement with ECUTEC to manufacture various new models of micro fine classifiers and Ball Mills for micro fine grinding, thereby enhancing the product range. However the management is not so aggressive and doesn’t have any major capex plan. Hence it’s a debt free company and infact holding liquid cash to the tune of Rs 18 cr that is equivalent to Rs 75 per share. So eventually one is getting the company at an EV of Rs 37 cr i.e. Rs 155 per share. To conclude although company may grow a CAGR of 10% still it’s a value buy at current levels. It’s a strong bonus candidate as well. Only long term investors are advised to keep accumulating at declines.

ICSA (205.00) boasts of developing innovative products suitable for power utilities in the field of energy management, energy audit, control application which identifies distribution losses, and help the power utilities reduce their costs & streamline their operations. The list of its popular product includes Intelligent Automatic meter reading, Distribution transformer monitoring system, Theft detection device, Energy audit services, Pole top & Micro remote terminal unit to name a few. Notably, products developed by the company also find application in other sectors including oil, gas, water, irrigation and mining which has thrown open a big opportunity for the company. On the other hand company has the capabilities in designing, supplying, transporting, erecting, testing & commissioning of 400/220/132 kV transmission lines & sub stations, outdoor & GIS sub stations on EPC. Whereas on the Turnkey basis it executes HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) Distribution works, Rural Electrification works, Industrial Electrification works & construction of 33/11 kV Indoor & Outdoor Sub Stations. Meanwhile, government has undertaken incentive financing to enhance the commercial viability of SEBs which has forced the SEB to cut down their T&D losses thereby automatically creating huge demand for company’s product. Moreover, govt has also enhanced the allocation under APDRP scheme by 160% to Rs.2080 cr which augurs well for the company. Lately it has bagged huge orders to the tune of Rs 460 cr from Bihar and Maharashtra State Electricity Boards. It is expected to a turnover of Rs 1350 cr and PAT of Rs 165 cr for FY10. This works out to an EPS of Rs 35 on current equity of Rs 9.40 cr having face value as Rs 2/- per share. Keep accumulating at every declines.

Shanthi Gears (40.00) is a leading manufacturer of industrial gears, gearboxes, geared motors and gear assemblies. Infact, it is the second largest player in industrial gear segment with 20% market share. It caters to wide range of industries like power, sugar, paper, material handling, construction equipment, steel and cement industries with products ranging from worm gear boxes, helical & bevel helical gear box, geared motor, custom built gear box, mill gear box, open gearing, CNC machine tools to products for the textile industry. It also manufactures high-precision gears for the marine and aviation industry. lately, company has even started manufacturing gearboxes of 250 KV for windmills which has great potential. As company is in the process of revamping and restructuring the entire operational and organisational structure, it faced some labor problem which has been sorted out. Due to economic slowdown and revamping of operation its FY10 performance is expected to be lackluster. Moreover there are also rumors going on for quite long time that promoter has kept the company on the block and is looking for correct price to exit. For FY09, company had taken an exceptional hit of nearly Rs 7 cr as interest and forex loss towards redemption of FCCB during the Dec Qtr. Hence for the entire FY09 its sales was well as profit remained almost flat at Rs 253 cr and Rs 44 cr leading to an EPS of more than Rs 5 on the equity of Rs 8.20 cr having face value as Rs 1/- per share. Even for FY10, on a conservative basis it may report sales of Rs 200 cr and PAT of Rs 35 cr i.e. EPS of Rs 4.30. However for FY11 company is expected to be back on track and record an EPS of Rs 6.50. Buy only at sharp declines

Aditya Birla Chemicals (India) Ltd - Rs 75.00

Aditya Birla Chemicals Ltd (ABCIL), formly known as Bihar Caustic & Chemicals Limited was incorporated in 1976 as a joint venture between the Aditya Birla Group and the Bihar State Industrial Development Corporation, primarily with the objective of catering to the caustic soda requirements of Hindalco and to contribute towards the economic development of the backward region of Palamau district in Jharkhand. Today, it is among the leading caustic soda producer in the northern and eastern region of the country. Apart from caustic soda it also produces liquid chlorine, hydrochloric acid, sodium hypochlorite, compressed hydrogen and has recently ventured into aluminum chloride. In India, about 45% of the chemical industry depends upon the caustic soda industry as essential inputs for a host of industries like soap and detergent, aluminum, paper & newsprint, fibre, glass, tyre, chemicals & petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, water treatment, dyes, textiles, oils, etc. However being a subsidiary of Hindalco Industries, ABCIL is having an added advantage of assured off-take of caustic soda by the parent company. It also has a hydrogen bottling facility which provides an additional stream of revenue. ABCIL is a member of several chemicals manufacturers' associations including Alkali Manufacturers Association of India (AMAI), Indian Chemical Council (ICC) and American Chemistry Council.

After shifting the manufacturing process of its plant from mercury technology to the energy efficient state-of-art membrane cell technology, ABCIL has been constantly expanding it capacity albeit at slow pace. Presently it boasts of having an installed capacity of caustic soda (300 TPD), liquid chlorine (250 TPD), hydrochloric acid (125 TPD), sodium hypochlorite (4 TPD) & compressed hydrogen gas (18,25,000 Nm3/A). Secondly, as caustic soda production is power intensive, ABCIL has put up its own 30 MW coal based captive power plant due to which its energy costs are lower than its peers. For value addition and effective utilization of chlorine, the company has commissioned 12,000 TPA aluminium chloride plant in the year 2007 and 17,500 TPA stable bleaching powder (SBP) plant in the year 2008. SBP is marketed under brand name of SHAKTIMAN and is basically used in textile mills for bleaching, sanitation, sewage systems, tanning process, organic synthesis and other applications. On the other hand aluminum chloride is mainly used as an input for manufacturing of aluminum apart from being used in pharmaceuticals, chemical intermediates, agrochemicals, dyestuffs and pigments, hydrocarbon resins, flavors and fragrances. Most importantly, with nearly 70% its production being taken by Hindalco, company has an assured and ready market for its product

Fundamentally, ABCIL is doing quite well as for FY09 it reported 20% growth in sales to Rs 205 cr although the PAT remained flat at Rs 46 cr. During the Sept’08 quarter the boiler of the power plant tripped due to mal functioning of safety device hence the power cost shot up for that period which dented its bottomline for time being. However the problem was rectified in the same quarter and post that company has been churning out good set of nos. Notably, ABCIL enjoys the highest operating margins among it peers - even better than Gujarat Alkalies and Chemfab Alkali. Even for the latest June’09 quarter its topline grew by 15% to Rs 60 cr and PAT improved by 20% to Rs 16 cr. It is one of the few companies which have been consistently reporting an OPM of ~40% and NPM of ~25%. For FY10 it is expected to clock a turnover of Rs 240 cr and PAT of Rs 60 cr leading to an EPS of Rs 26 on equity of Rs 23.40 cr. But despite belonging to such a reputed group and having strong fundamentals like high profit margin, low debt equity ratio, huge reserves, good dividend yield, consistent growth etc, scrip has been always poorly discounted by the marketmen. Currently it is trading at a forward PE multiple of 2.5x times and EV/ EBIDTA of 2x times. There is also a possibility of ABCIL getting merged with Hindalco industries. But if this happens, the true value of ABCIL wont be unlocked, as the merger ratio will more favorable to the parent rather than subsidiary. Still investors are recommended to buy at current levels as scrip can easily double within a year.

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To fund its future growth plans MIC Electronics (50.00) has decided to make preferential allotment of 1.65 cr warrants to promoters and others at the rate of Rs 44 per warrant. It is further contemplating to raise nearly Rs 150 cr thru QIP or FCCB route. Although this may lead to ~40% equity dilution but it will put the company on the fast track growth for coming years. MIC is a pioneer in design, development, manufacture & supply of true color LED Video Displays, LED Lighting products and solutions. Infact, it is the only integrated LED display manufacturer in India with design-to-manufacture capabilities. To cater the rising demand company is in the midst of tripling its total capacity to 50,000 modules from 15,000 modules. It is setting up a manufacturing unit for LED true colour displays, LED lighting solutions and solar based LED lighting products at Fab City SEZ near Hyderabad for which it has already been allotted 50 acre of land on lease. Lately, company has got the RDSO approval for its unique & innovative video cum train info display system thereby becoming the first and only company to get such approval. Couple of months ago it signed an MOU with IOC for marketing high efficiency Solar LED Lantern thru their rural retail outlets. Earlier company bagged a long term contract for display of advertisement thru 50 nos of LED display system in Delhi. For FY10 it may clock a turnover of Rs 275~300 cr and profit of Rs 60 cr leading to an EPS of Rs 6 on current equity of Rs 20 cr having Rs 2 as face value. However for the next 3~4 years, company has the potential to record a CAGR of ~30%. A solid bet with a nominal risk of downfall.

HBL Power (300.00) is a technology focused manufacturer of several ranges of specialized application batteries i.e. nickel cadmium (pocket, fibre, and sintered plate), lead acid (VRLA, Tubular, LMLA), silver oxide zinc, lithium, thermal, etc. Infact it is the market leader in VRLA (valve regulated lead acid) and NCPP (nickel cadium pocket plate) batteries and enjoys 50% market share of domestic telecom market. Moreover it is the world’s second largest player in nickel cadium alkaline batteries and stands 3rd for Nicad Passenger aircraft batteries. It also manufactures other power electronics such as thyristor controlled battery chargers, earth leakage monitors, battery monitoring systems, industrial chargers, uninterrupted power systems, distribution boards etc. It even has a dedicated railway division to execute end-to-end turnkey railway signaling works, starting from yard design, estimation, procurement, installation and commissioning. Recently it has put up two new factories at Vizianagaram and SEZ Vizag in Visakhapatnam under a capex of Rs 150 cr and is now setting up a small facility in Mahape, New Mumbai. It is also planning to set up of JV Company in Saudi Arabia to manufacture Industrial Batteries. For FY09 its topline grew by 30% to Rs 1244 cr and bottomline increase by 35% to Rs 91 cr leading to an EPS of Rs 37. It reported satisfactory nos for Q1FY10 and is expected to register sales of Rs 1200 cr and PAR of Rs ~85 cr i.e. EPS of Rs 35 on current equity of Rs 24.30 cr. At a reasonable discounting by 12x times, scrip can move up to Rs 420 within a year. Meanwhile just to improve the liquidity company has decided for stock split into face value of Rs 1/- per share.

KLG Systel (200.00) specializes in offering technological solution for entire business life cycle i.e. right from concept and creation, through plant design, project execution and management operations & optimisation to expansion/ revamp. It offers knowledge solutions mainly to oil & gas, process, power, metal, manufacturing and infrastructure sectors in India by providing a unique mix of industry domain expertise, software solutions, consultancy and training. It also provides on-line IT solutions to distribution utilities, using its self-developed software Vidushi, SG61 Technology and solution for determining the transmission & distribution losses, fixing the areas of power theft, on-the spot billing & cheque collection, increasing revenue collection efficiency of the utilities and addressing consumer grievances. Having partnered with world leaders like Autodesk, COADE, IBM, Invensys, Microsoft, Oracle, Primavera and SAP, company boast of having close to 1500 customers that include Top 500 Indian companies (both from the government and private sector) and the Indian arms of Fortune 500 companies. Notably, KLG is among the thirteen companies who have been empanelled as an IT Implementation Agency for three roles, System Integrator (SI), GIS Solution Provider (GSP) and Meter Data Acquisition Solution Provider (MDASP) for the implementation of Restructured Accelerated Power Development and Reforms Programme of Government of India. On the other hand company is creating a new Enterprise business unit to address enterprise projects management, asset management and optimization needs of large enterprise who design, create or maintain asset intensive infrastructure. For FY10 on a standalone basis, it may report total revenue of Rs 275 cr and NP of Rs 32 cr i.e. EPS of Rs 25 on current equity of Rs 12.60 cr. Accumulate only at sharp declines.

Panama Petrochem (120.00) is one of India’s leading manufacturers and exporters of petroleum specialty products with an installed capacity of 69000 MTPA. It manufactures more than 80 product variants consisting of transformer oil, liquid paraffin, petroleum jelly, cable jelly, ink oil, rubber process oil, and antistatic coning oil. It even has collaboration with Lubcon, Germany for distribution of their specialized products as well. Incidentally, company’s import of raw material is much larger than export of product. Hence during FY09, company was negatively impacted by the depreciation in rupee and took a hit of massive Rs 17 cr for full year. Because of this it’s PAT declined by 20% to Rs 11.60 cr despite sales improved by 60% to Rs 367 cr for FY09. On the other hand company’s tax outgo also increased since it enjoyed Income Tax exemption on profit of Daman unit only up to March 31, 2008. Thus, for future growth company is contemplating to set up a Greenfield plant at another tax free zone like Uttarakhand or Baddi. At the same time, it has also gone for an inorganic growth and has acquired a related private company called “Mobil Petrochem” by allotting equity shares. Accordingly, company’s equity got expanded to Rs 5.84 cr from 4.76 cr. However for Q1FY10 it reported 25% decline in net profit to Rs 5.40 cr whereas topline fell by 35% to Rs 62 cr. With rupee stabilization, company is not expected to take any further hit on forex loss in FY10 and is further slated to register sales of atleast Rs 325 cr and PAT of Rs 18 cr i.e. EPS of Rs 38 on expanded equity of Rs 5.84cr. Keep accumulating at declines.

Balaji Amines Ltd - Rs 105.00

Balaji Amines Ltd (BAL) was setup in 1988 for manufacturing of aliphatic amines in India to cater the growing requirements of value based specialty chemicals. Since then, it has emerged as the leading producer of methylamines, ethylamines and their derivatives. Importantly, BAL is among the few handful manufacturers across the world as amine manufacturing technology is a closely guarded process. And ironically company is using indigenously developed technology i.e. without any technical foreign collaboration. And remarkably, its one of the lowest cost producers of methylamines in the world. Today, it also produces specialty chemicals which are import substitutes like Morpholine, hydroxylamine, N-Methyl Pyrrolidone (NMP) etc and few natural products (herbal extracts) such as solanesol, calcium sennosoid, coleus forskohlii, camptothesin, Co-Enzyme Q-10, Tocopherols, Tocotrienols & SoyIsoflavones etc. Company’s products find application in various important industries including like pharmaceuticals, agro chemicals, water treatment, rubber chemicals, dyes & pigment, paper, explosives, rocket fuel oil refineries, photography etc. Besides, Morpholine - which is being manufactured by company for the first time in India through indigenously developed technology, finds extensive application in manufacture of corrosion protection compounds used in refineries, ships, steel plants etc. Being ISO 9001-2000 certified, company’s product are very well accepted in international market and it derives more than 20% of total revenue from export to several countries such as UK, USA, Canada, Latin America, Germany, Italy, Middle East, South Africa, France, Brazil, Mexico etc

BAL has two manufacturing facilities - one at Sholapur-Maharashtra for amines & derivatives and second one at Hyderabad – AP for natural products. Recently it has set up a third unit in Chincholi-Solapur, for production of Gamma Butyro Lactone (GBL), a raw material for manufacture of NPM with a name plate capacity of ~6500 TPA. With the commencement of this plant in July 2009, now BAL has, not to depend on import of GBL as its requirement can be fully met from captive production. This would reduce the cost of production of NMP and also enhance the product range to serve the domestic and export market. Interestingly, this GBL plant is first of its kind in India and is a 100% import substitute. Moreover, company has developed the manufacturing process in-house thru R&D with catalytic dehydrogenation. The hydrogen produced by dehydrogenation is further being utilized, for the first time in India for running the boilers. On the other hand due to constant expansion, company boast of having total combined installed capacity of 50,500 TPA for aliphatic amines and derivatives of amines. Against this company is working at less than 80% capacity utilization. It has strong presence in domestic market with major clients from pharma sector including Aurobindo, Aventis, Clariant, Dr. Reddy’s, Glaxo, Merck, Ranbaxy, Sun Pharma, Wyeth, Wockhardt, etc. Earlier it also entered into a long term strategic arrangement with BASF for supply of NMP. Notably, company is the only manufacturer for Morpholine and NMP with a monopoly status in India and hence, has set up a separate dedicated plant at Solapur to manufacture them.

Meantime, for future growth BAL is setting up Poly Vinyl Pyrrolidone (PVP) plant at Chincholi, Solapur, which will be again the first in India. Simultaneously it is also setting up 2.5 MW co-generation power plant at Tamalwadi, Solapur. Last fiscal it started power generation through windmill by establishing 1.5 MW windmill at Satara, Maharashtra. Further, it has always been the company's endeavour to continuously seek knowledge into newer products and technologies. It boasts of having two state-of-the-art R&D centers at both its plants. The R&D initiatives undertaken over the years have been one of the largest contributories in making the company a major player in speciality chemicals. Infact, for FY09 it has spent more than 5% of its revenue for R&D. Thus because of its strategic backward & forward integration, BAL has been able to maintain its status of one of the lowest cost producers.

Financially, company has been reporting very encouraging nos as sales has grown at a CAGR of 25% and PAT at a CAGR of 35% for the last five years. For FY09, its sales improved by 15% to Rs 252 cr and profit increased by 20% to Rs 15 cr. Thus it posted an EPS of Rs 24 on equity of Rs 6.50 cr. Incidentally, company is negatively impacted by the depreciating rupee as it imports lot of raw material, although to a great extent it gets mitigated due to exports. Most importantly, despite such volatility in raw material prices based on crude, BAL has been successful in maintaining a more or less stable operating margin. Even for Q1FY10 its PAT remained flat at Rs 5 cr despite reporting nearly 25% fall in sales. Accordingly for FY10 it may clock a turnover of Rs 250 cr and net profit of Rs 17 cr i.e. EPS of Rs 26 on current equity. At a modest discounting by 6x times, the share price can shoot up Rs 160 within 12~15 months. Investors are advised to buy keep accumulating at declines.

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