Navabharat Ferro Alloys (Code: 513023) Rs.71

Established in 1975, Nava Bharat Ferro Alloys Ltd (NBFAL) is a diversified company engaged in the manufacture of Ferro Alloys like Ferro chrome, Silico manganese, Ferro manganese which are major raw materials for Iron & Steel companies. Today, it is among the largest fully integrated manufacturer of Ferro alloys with captive power plants. The company exports its products to leading foreign companies in USA, Korea, Japan, Indonesia, Italy, Turkey, Spain etc. Its clientele includes reputed biggies like TISCO, SAIL, Essar Steel, Jindal Vijaynagar etc. in the domestic market and POSCO, NUCOR, NIPPON, SUMITOMO etc. in the international markets. Besides generation of power, NBFAL also manufactures sugar and its by-products.

Its manufacturing is spread across two states. Its Paloncha plant at Andhra Pradesh has the capacity to manufacture 75,000 MTA of ferro alloys with a captive power plant of 50 MW whereas its second plant is in Orissa with 75,000 MTA capacity with a 30 MW thermal power plant. The company has a 3500 TCD sugar plant with a 6 million litres per annum distillery and co-generation power plant of 5 MW at Samalkot in Andhra Pradesh. To cater to the rising demand, NBFAL has recently set up a new furnace in Andhra Pradesh, catering to the production of Manganese Alloys with a capacity of 50,000 MTA, which is expected to start commercial operations in a couple of months. With this expansion, NBFAL’s total smelting capacity will be enhanced to 2,00,000 MTA. Besides it is planning to set up an Rs.80-crore power plant with 32 MW capacity in AP and 15 MW plant in Orissa for captive consumption. Having expanded its cane-crushing capacity from 2,500 to 3,500 TCD recently, the company is now weighing options to raise the capacity to 4,500 TCD first and further to 5,000 TCD over the ensuing two seasons. The co-generation capacity would also be increased to 9 MW from 5 MW at a cost of Rs.20 cr. NBFAL is also looking forward to opportunities in the area of importing raw sugar and refining it, which would enable the company to use its idle capacities for another 3/4 months.

NBFAL has been a dividend paying company since 1972, which signifies the company’s investor-friendly outlook. For FY05, while Sales grew marginally by 7% to Rs.422 cr. the NP almost doubled to Rs.106 cr. inspite of the fact that production was affected due to severe fire accident at its Orissa plant in late Nov 2004, for which the company has partly received the insurance claim and the balance will come soon. Only in May 2005, the plant resumed its operation and is currently running at full capacity. For FY06, NBFAL is expected to report a topline of Rs.525 cr. and bottomline of Rs.120 cr. leading to an EPS of Rs.18 on its small equity of Rs.13.40 cr. with a FV of Rs.2 per share. Investors are strongly recommended to buy at current levels with a price target of Rs.120 (i.e. 70% appreciation) in 9~12 months.

First Leasing Company of India - Rs.46.50

Incorporated in 1973, First Leasing Company of Indian Ltd (FLCIL) was promoted by Mr. Farouk Irani as the First Leasing Company of India. In fact, FLCIL introduced leasing to India three decades ago. Subsequently, it commenced Hire Purchase in 1986 and diversified into consumer finance in 1988. The company was appointed as financial consultant to the financial wing of the Indian Railways and is the chairperson of the Association of Leasing & Financial Services companies over the last 7 years and has been invited number of times to address the World Leasing Conference at Washington, Sydney, San Francisco, Istanbul, Mexico, Dublin and Hong Kong. FLCIL holds the respectable Triple 'A' credit rating from Fitch, a wholly owned International Credit Rating Agency and from CARE in India.

FLCIL is primarily engaged in financial activities viz. Lease Financing, Hire Purchase Financing and Loans. It has various products in its account like Lease, short term leases, Long term leases, operating leases, sale and leaseback, Hire Purchase, Consumer Credit, Inter Corporate Deposits, Fixed Deposit etc. Today, leasing has become an essential part of the Indian Financial System. From consumer finance to pharmaceuticals, heavy industry to telecommunications, railways to electricity boards, leasing constitutes an important source of funds for almost every sector of the economy. The company has broken new ground in offering a software lease product to the IT Industry, working closely with a major software Leasing Company in the US. It has also begun to negotiate Real Estate leases in the key metro cities and is all set to tap the most promising prospect of Aircraft Leasing. FLCIL is also engaged in Wind Power Generation but to a limited extent.

The company has complied with all applicable regulations as per RBI’s directives to NBFCs. Its capital adequacy ratio stood at 24.11% as at 31st March 2005 as against the minimum requirement of 12%. It can boast of maintaining a very low NPA of around 1%. Notably it is one of the few companies in India that has an uninterrupted dividend record for the last 30 years and was the first finance company to issue bonus shares in 1983 in the ratio of 1:3. For FY05 its revenue witnessed a degrowth of 7% to Rs.110 cr. whereas NP increased by 12% to Rs.24 cr. due to lower depreciation provision. For FY06, it is expected to grow marginally and may report a NP of Rs.25 cr., which means an EPS of Rs.11. With a Book Value of Rs.75 and dividend yield of 5%, this becomes a safe bet in the current scenario. Investors are recommended to accumulate this scrip at current levels with a price target of Rs.75 (i.e. 60% returns) in 12~15 months.

STOCK WATCH

Indian Sucrose (Code No: 500319)(Rs.30.95) is a great turnaround story, which has still not caught the market fancy, and is available cheap compared to its peers. It’s a small sugar mill with a capacity of 3500 TCD. For FY06, it can report Net Sales of Rs.90 cr. and NP of Rs.11~12 cr. leading to an EPS of Rs.7~8 on its current equity of Rs.15.50 cr. besides it has also acquired a distillery with 4 well known brands of Rum. Scrip has the potential to double in 12 months. A strong buy.

At a time when the overall Sensex is discounted by 16~18 times, shipping companies are available at a PE of 4~5. A sharp re-rating is overdue and the current best bet in this sector is G E Shipping (Code No: 500620) (Rs.198.65). Its demerger is already finalised and shareholders will get 4 shares of GE Shipping and 1 share of Great Offshore Ltd for every 5 shares currently held. This will unlock shareholder value substantially as the market richly discounts the offshore business. This is the safest bet in the current market scenario and 25~30% returns can easily be expected in the next 6 months. A great buy.

One great pick in the current mid-cap crisis is Sanjivani Parenteral (Code No: 531569) (Rs.65.50). Scrip has corrected 35% from its recent high of Rs.104. Its one of the fastest growing companies in contract manufacturing of pharmaceuticals and constantly reporting impressive numbers since last the 3/4 qtrs. For FY06, it can report Net Sales of Rs.45 cr. and NP of Rs.7 cr. i.e. an EPS of Rs.14. Share price has the potential to double in 9~12 months. Just grab it.

Winsome Textiles (Code No: 514470) (Rs.26.30) is a professionally managed company engaged in the manufacture of 100% cotton yarn for weaving as well as knitting. To cater to the increasing demand, the company has chalked out Rs.10.50 cr. capex plan under which it intends to add 5 combers to convert part production of carded cotton yarn to combed yarn which has better margins. Also some balancing equipment is planned for the dyeing house to increase production. This expansion will be funded by debt and internal accruals without any equity dilution. For FY06, it can report Sales of Rs.150 cr. and NP of Rs.4 cr., which means and EPS of Rs.7 on its small equity of Rs.5.90 cr. Its share price can easily double by mid FY06 and it can be a multibagger if held for 3 years or more.

Strong scrips like Indo Asian Fuse Gear India Ltd (Code No: 532658) (Rs.113.60) has also taken a beating in this correction with its share price falling nearly 35% to Rs.118 from the recent high of Rs.174. It’s a leading manufacturer of electrical safety devices such as miniature circuit breakers, residual current circuit breakers, HRC fuses, transformers, switchgears wires & wiring accessories, industrial plugs & sockets, contactor relays, distribution boards etc. The company is among the top three players in the domestic compact fluorescent lamps market and sells its product under the brand name ‘Ecolite’. Recently, it announced its foray into specialised outdoor lighting equipment manufacturing for future growth. It has formed a joint venture with Nordex Lighting Spa of Italy and is setting up a state-of-the-art plant in the tax free zone of Uttaranchal at Haridwar. For FY06, it can report total Sales of Rs.200 cr. and NP of Rs.25 cr. leading to an EPS of Rs.18 on its fully diluted equity of Rs.14.30 cr. Scrip can easily cross Rs.200 in 12 months. A solid buy.

Another good scrip, which has corrected sharply, is Hazoor Media (Code No: 532467) (Rs.12.25), which has tumbled 35% from recent high of Rs.20.50 as Parle Biseleri sold its stake in it. The company is into production of media content in diversified software categories viz. entertainment, film and film based programmes, sitcoms, news and current affairs, game shows and caters to the demand of media companies in the international market. HMPL also provides infrastructure services like shooting locations, floors, studios, post production processing facilities, filming equipment and qualified trained manpower to the film & entertainment industry. Apart from these it has various triggers like huge property, upcoming ethanol project, power generation etc. Scrip has the strength to touch Rs.25 in 12~15 months. Aggressive investors can take exposure at current levels.

GSFC - Rs.140.50

Incorporated in 1962 Gujarat State Fertilisers & Chemicals Ltd. (GSFC) was promoted by the Government of Gujarat to manufacture fertilizers and heavy chemicals. Today, it is the largest producer of caprolactum and also has one of the largest capacities in diammonium phosphate. Currently GSFC manufactures chemicals, fertilisers, petrochemicals and other allied products such as urea, caprolactuam, ammonium sulphate, diammonium phosphate, ammonia, sulphuric acid, argon gas, etc. apart from producing nylon-chips and melamine. Recently, GSFC commercialized biotechnology by offering high quality tissue culture plants of banana and papaya to the farmers in Gujarat, Maharashtra and MP. It has also entered into marketing of bio-pesticides in order to propagate organic farming.

GSFC’s manufacturing facilities are dispersed over four units at Fertilizernagar (Baroda), Sikka (Jamnagar), Kosamba (Surat), and Nandesari (Baroda). It has a strong sales supporting network comprising 300 warehouses across the country connected through well-planned routes to reach the interiors and a strong marketing network of 140 Farm Information Centre-cum-Depots, where products & information are made available to farmers by more than 200 experienced agro-professionals. Currently, GSFC has an installed capacity to produce 70,000 MTPA of caprolactum, 3,64,000 MTA of urea and 6,54,000 MTA of diammonium phosphate and 15,000 MTA of melamine. Importantly, GSFC has made supply contracts with Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation (GSPC) and Gujarat Gas Company (GGCL) for natural gas and with GAIL for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). This gradual shift from naphtha as a feedstock to natural gas will lead to better operating efficiency and lower cost of production.

GSFC has made significant investments in other State government promoted companies like GNFC, GACL, GIPCL and other unlisted companies like GSPC etc. These value of these investments works out to be more than Rs.50~60 per GSFC share at current market price (CMP). But the real value will be much higher if these companies are actually divested. GSFC itself is one of the 12 State candidates in the disinvestment list. For FY05, its turnover grew by 25% to Rs.2606 cr. and profit before tax jumped 500% to Rs.252 cr. due to better operating margin and lower interest cost. NP stood at Rs.138 cr. due to higher deferred tax provisions leading to an EPS of Rs.17. With greater emphasis on the agriculture sector in the Union Budget, increased availability of credit to the farming community and with good industrial growth, GSFC can report Sales of around Rs.2750 cr. and NP of Rs.200 cr. leading to an EPS of Rs.25 for FY06. Investors are strongly recommended to buy this scrip at current levels with a price target of Rs.200 (40% return) in 9~12 months.

CCS Infotech- Rs.18.50

Incorporated in 1997, CCS Infotech Ltd (CCS) specializes in providing cutting edge information technology solutions in computers hardware, networking solutions and software development. Today, CCS has established itself as one of the premier companies in India engaged in the manufacturing, marketing and export of Desktop Computers, Laptop Computers, peripherals and other accessories. It sells its products under the brand name of ‘CCS’ and provides cost effective and high performance computer networking solutions to build Local Area Network, Wide Area Network and Wireless LAN to access the Internet and share data and resources between computers for Small & Medium enterprises (SME) business customers. It also provides Internet connection using ISDN, lease lines and Wireless Internet Connectivity (Broadband) using VSAT & RF Point to Point Communications. Its software division provides services for system design, software development, system integration and implementation, support and education, website development, hosting & maintainance etc. Some of the company's prestigious clients are BSNL (Tamilnadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka), Central Excise Department, Central Telegraph Office (Chennai), CPWD (Chennai), Customs Department, Income Tax Department, Indian Institute of Technology, Videsh Sanchar Nigam Ltd (VSNL), Cine Films & Arts, Consulate of Japan, Anna University (Chennai), etc.

CCS is a Microsoft certified partner and also an Intel premier provider. It is also the business partner for well known international brands like IBM,HP, etc. In India, CCS operates through 12 branches and 50 channel partners and plans to appoint 50 more channel partners in South & West India. It has national presence through its offices at Chennai, Coimbatore, Vellore, Madurai, Salem, Pondichery, Thiruvananthapuram, Mumbai, Bangalore, Secunderabad and global presence by its operations at its overseas office in Singapore to cater to international customers. It has tied-up with ‘VIVEKS’ - a chain of consumers durable showrooms for selling CCS brand of computers. The company also plans to set up a nationwide franchisee network to sell its CCS brand of Desktop PCs, high end Server solutions etc and also intends to set up an office in Mauritius.

Fundamentally, it’s a turnaround story as the company posted a NP of Rs.2 cr. in FY05 compared to a Net loss of Rs.3.90 cr. in FY04. Due to the earlier losses, the company’s general reserve has marginally turned positive in FY05 itself. So its BV is approx Rs.10. For June’05 qtr Sales tripled to Rs.11 cr. whereas NP jumped 380% to Rs.1.05 cr. registering a quarterly EPS of Rs.1.10 on its current equity of Rs.9.16 cr. Looking at the company’s recent orders and its June numbers, it seems that the management has turned aggressive and may end FY06 with sales of Rs.50 cr. and NP of Rs.4 cr., which means an EPS of Rs.4. Being in a competitive industry and a turnaround story, only aggressive investors are recommended to but at current level with expectation of 50% return in 9~12 months.