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!!! W E L C O M E !!!
In INDIA, people generally relate to stock market as “EASY MONEY” or “SATTA BAZAAR”. For them it’s purely a GAME or matter of sheer LUCK and nothing more than that. But seldom do they know, by following certain PRINCIPLES and taking INFORMED decision, this same platform has the power to take them from rags to riches. No doubt, it has a certain amount of RISK attached to it. But every business or investment has it. What more, the Finance Ministry has already made the long term capital gain as TAX FREE whereas the short term capital gain is taxed at merely 10%. On the economic front, India’s GDP is growing and is expected to grow at scorching pace of more than 8%. Unfortunately, even today our market is being ruled and dominated by FIRANGI’s money. But I can see, the day is not far when our general PUBLIC will change its perception and start putting MOST of their savings in equities as an ** Investment **.
Remember, "K N O W L E D G E" and "P A T I E N C E" are the key to success.
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SAARTHI

Sensex (LIVE- Intraday)

Sensex (LIVE- Intraday)

Friday, June 1, 2007

Seshasayee Paper - 130.00 Rs


Incorporated in 1960, Seshasayee Paper and Boards Limited (SPBL), is the flagship company of the well known "Esvin Group", a group that consists of Ponni Sugars (Erode), High Energy Batteries, Esvin Advanced Technologies etc. SPBL operates an integrated pulp, paper and paper board Mill at Pallipalayam, Erode in the state of Tamilnadu. It produces a wide range of products such as printing and writing papers, packing and wrapping papers and speciality papers. It also has branded products namely, ‘Sprint’, ‘Colour Sprint’, ‘Index’, ‘SprintPlus’, ‘Success’ etc which are quite popular in the southern market. In addition to catering to domestic market, company has been exporting 10-20% of the total production to around 15 countries across the world.. It has been accredited with various certifications such as ISO 9001, ISO 14001 and OHSAS 18001 by M/s Det Norske Veritas, Netherlands for its quality, environment and occupational health and safety management systems.

Presently, SPBL’s manufacturing plant has the pulping capacity of 230 TPD and paper manufacturing capacity of 115,000 TPA. Against this it made an all time high production of 123,468 tonnes of paper for FY07 leading to capacity utilization of more than 107%. At the same, it achieved ‘Zero Stock’ of finished goods inventory, as at the end of the FY07, for the 10th time in the last 13 years which proves the management quality and integrity. To enhance its environmental performance and to sustain compliance under CREP, SPBL is implementing Mill Development Plan at estimated cost of 350 cr which will also make the company self sufficient in wood pulp requirements. This project involves the replacement of the existing three decade old wood pulp Mill with a 350 tonnes per day second hand pulp Mill from USA which has advanced technological features, like RDH Pulping, Oxygen De-lignification, ECF Bleaching for wood pulp etc. The mill has already been dismantled, shipped from USA and arrived at the company’s mill site as per unconfirmed reports. Besides this, a new modern chemical recovery Boiler (in the place of existing two chemical recovery Boilers), a black liquor Evaporation plant, a lime re-burning Kiln and a turbo Alternator set will also be installed. This whole capex is funded thru a mix of 270 cr term loan and 80 cr of internal accrual and is estimated to complete by December 2007. On the other hand, to de-risk its dependence on government and other agencies, SPBL has entered into agreements with farmers holding over 3000 acres of land and planted Eucalyptus Hybrid/ Casuarina varieties to develop its own source of plantations.

To summarize, post up-gradation SPBL’s profit margin are estimated to improve substantially in FY09 due to lesser dependence on imported pulp, reduction in power and fuel cost, increased capacity, greater raw material yield on account of less manufacturing wastage etc. For FY07 it can report sales of 450 cr and PBT of 32 cr. As company has reversed the earlier deferred tax provision, the NP may be around 30 cr. This works out to an EPS of 27 Rs on equity of 11.25 cr. For the current fiscal it is expected to clock a turnover of more than 500 cr and net profit of 34 cr ie EPS of 30 Rs. However, the full benefit of the ongoing capex will be visible only in FY09. Despite its debt-equity ratio being high, scrip has the potential to give reasonable return of 25% in a years time. But buy at declines only.

Micro Technologies - 230.00 Rs

Established in 1992 and promoted by Mr. P Sekhar, Micro Technologies (India) Ltd. (MTIL) is a global provider of security, safety and life-support solutions. Over the years, MTIL has developed a wide range of security and IT products using its leverage over various futuristic technology platforms such as embedded, web-based and client server applications. Today, MTIL can boast of having very unique, hi-tech, first of its kind and innovative products like Lost Mobile Tracking System, Secure-Bank Black Box, Vehicle Black Box, Disaster Management System, Home Security System, Intelligent Black Box, Access Control Solution etc which have huge demand world wide. Some of the company's focus areas comprises of meeting utmost challenges viewing the requirement from the international perspective and delivering quality services in terms of security, e-commerce, wireless telecom and GIS technology universally. Ironically with over 80 IPR’s, its technology has been patented in 123 countries, giving it exclusive rights in these markets. Besides it has various web-based and non web-based software products for banks, hospitals, chartered accountants, lawyers, housing societies, SME’s, transporters etc. To summarize company’s revolutionary products are the USP for the company.

After developing and having world class products in its kitty, MTIL is now focusing more on marketing and distribution to increase its presence in India as well across the world. Accordingly it has appointed more than 2000 dealers/distributors all over India, opened more than 50 Micro Shoppe franchise outlets, increased participation in exhibition and has also increased the advertisement budget substantially for brand building and product awareness. It has also set up Micro Service centres to provide maintenance and support facilities. On the international front, it has a number of strategic alliances with majors like Siemens AG, Sony Ericsson, Automobile Research Association of India (ARAI), Knowledge Vector and Girvan Institute of technology to name a few. It has also entered into marketing tie-ups with numerous foreign companies like Active Solutions, Easy Fleet Solutions, Tokyo Software, Pacific Solution, Status Solutions etc to increase its global presence. Meanwhile, MTIL continues to have a strong R&D team with over 100 people working on multiple innovations to ensure that company introduces five to six new products in the market every year. Recently, it has launched couple of dynamic products like Office Black Box for office security and Electric Black Box for power industry which too has great potential. Notably, company has got a good breakthrough by bagging orders from Department of Explosives, India and Premium Municipal Corporation, UAE.

To fulfill the growing demand, MTIL is undergoing aggressive expansion to triple its capacity. Besides India, company has huge plans for export especially to USA, Middle East and European market. Hence it is desperate to make some acquisitions to make its foothold stronger in international market. On the other hand, it intends to quadruple the count of Micro Shoppe by this fiscal end. It has even launched a novell concept of Mobile Micro Shoppe ie Shops on Wheels. In order to fund its growth plan company is planning to raise around 85 cr thru FCCB/GDR route. It is also making preferential allotment of 11.50 lac shares/warrants which is expected to take place around 300/- Rs per share. To conclude, MTIL is bound to grow at a scorching pace through product innovations, strategic tie-ups and geographical expansion. For FY07 it recorded 80% growth in both sales as well as NP to 106 cr and 32 cr respectively. This means EPS of 30 Rs on equity of 10.50 cr. For FY08 the sales and NP can shoot up to 150 cr and 42 cr ie EPS of 28 Rs on estimated diluted equity of 15 cr. Hence investors are strongly recommended to buy at current levels as share price can easily double in 15 to 18 months.

Thursday, May 31, 2007

Stock Watch

As predicted earlier, Easun Reyrolle came out with stunning nos for the March quarter. It reported an all time high sales of 46 cr (up 45%) whereas NP zoomed up by 135% to 6.80 cr registering a mind blowing EPS of 20 Rs for the quarter. However for the full year its sales improved by 25% to 133 cr and profit grew by 35% to 17.70 cr. This translates into yearly EPS of 53 Rs on a very tiny equity of 3.33 cr. It also announced 12 Rs as total dividend (incl 2/- Rs as interim) which is the highest in its history. Offlate company has ventured into a new business area i.e. construction of projects on turnkey basis under which it will mainly concentrate on substation projects and power system automation project. For future growth it is setting up a 45,000 sq ft world class manufacturing facility at Hosur for medium voltage switchgear with an investment of Rs.12 cr. For FY08 it may clock a turnover of 175 cr and PAT of 23.50 ie EPS of 64 on diluted equity of 3.66 cr. To improve the liquidity management has already announced the stock split to 2/- Rs face value and with an estimated book value of 175 Rs (ie reserves of 65 cr) they may declare a bonus as well in future. Scrip can trade around 250 Rs post split.

Recently, International Combustion also announced every encouraging result. Sales increased by 15% to 24 cr and profit jumped up 50% to 2.80 cr ie EPS of around 12 Rs for the quarter. For the entire FY07, it recorded 20% growth in sales to 80 cr and an impressive 45% rise in NP to 8.30 cr. This works out to an EPS of 35 Rs on equity of 2.40 cr. Notably, this is after writing of 1.30 cr as bad debts else its NP would have been 9.50 cr. Due to some growth plans, it declared 50% dividend, same as last year. Company is a leading manufacturer of heavy engineering equipment, geared motors and gear boxes, vibrating screens and feeders, bulk material handling equipment, rubber/polyurethane screen decks and liners, Raymond grinding mills, air classifiers and flash drying system etc. Considering the strong economic growth coupled with huge outsourcing prospects it may end FY08 with topline of 100 cr and net profit of 11 cr which leads to an EPS of 46 Rs on current equity. Besides with more than 30 cr of reserves ie book value of 125 Rs, management may declare a liberal bonus this year. Share price can double in a years time. A screaming buy.

Having technical collabaration with Benteler of Germany, Gandhi Special Tubes is one of the leading manufacturers of small diameter welded steel tubes, cold drawn seamless steel tubes, tubular components and cold formed nuts. For the March’07 quarter its sales as well as PBT grew by 20% to 18 cr and 5.20 respectively. However due to higher tax provisioning its NP stood at 3.35 cr against 6.25 cr last year. On the full years basis the turnover increased by 10% to 61.50 whereas profit before tax grew marginally to 19.50 cr. After tax provisioning of 6.50 cr (against 2.40 cr) NP delined to 13 cr compare to 16 cr last fiscal. Hence it reported an EPS of 17.50 Rs on equity of 7.35 cr and gave 40% dividend for FY07. It has a impressice clientele including biggies like Godrej, Voltas, Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, M&M, Maruti etc. Although its margins seem to under pressure due to rise in steel prices, still being a niche player it can report sales of 75 cr and NP of 15 cr for FY08 ie EPS of 20. With 52week H/L as 110/180 Rs scrip has the potential to touch 160 Rs in good sentiment

As textile sector is out of flavour, companies like Shri Lakshmi Cotsyn are available at reasonably cheap valuations.It has been manufacturing suiting shirting, embroideried and quilted fabric, industrial fabric apart from processing cotton sheeting. Recently it has set up a gigantic plant in Fatehpur andstarted producing denim, terry towel, wider width sheeting, heavy weight bottomwear fabric etc. It is also venturing into garment manufacturing in a big way. For the March quarter it reported 65% jump in sales to Rs.154 cr. whereas net profit almost tripled to Rs.12 cr. and registered 18% OPM against 8% in the last fiscal. For FY07 ending June’07 it can report sales of 550 cr and NP of 35 cr which can shoot upto 725 cr and 45 cr repectively for FY08. This means EPS of 24 Rs and 30 Rs on diluted equity of 14.80 cr. Company is rasing around 85 cr thru FCCB/GDR route which can dilute the equity further to around 21 cr. Buy at sharp declines only.