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!!! W E L C O M E !!!
In INDIA, people generally relate to stock market as “EASY MONEY” or “SATTA BAZAAR”. For them it’s purely a GAME or matter of sheer LUCK and nothing more than that. But seldom do they know, by following certain PRINCIPLES and taking INFORMED decision, this same platform has the power to take them from rags to riches. No doubt, it has a certain amount of RISK attached to it. But every business or investment has it. What more, the Finance Ministry has already made the long term capital gain as TAX FREE whereas the short term capital gain is taxed at merely 10%. On the economic front, India’s GDP is growing and is expected to grow at scorching pace of more than 8%. Unfortunately, even today our market is being ruled and dominated by FIRANGI’s money. But I can see, the day is not far when our general PUBLIC will change its perception and start putting MOST of their savings in equities as an ** Investment **.
Remember, "K N O W L E D G E" and "P A T I E N C E" are the key to success.
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SAARTHI

Sensex (LIVE- Intraday)

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Saturday, February 2, 2008

La Opala RG Ltd - 32.00 Rs

Incorporated in 1987, La Opala RG Ltd (LORL) is engaged in the manufacturing and marketing of opalware and crystalware in India. It is among the very few well-established domestic crockery brand in the country with a range of 100 products including dinner sets, tea sets, coffee sets, soup bowls & spoons, mugs, plates, casseroles, flower vases and other table wares. Infact, LORL is the market leader with 50% market share in opal ware and 20% market share for crystal ware. While the opal glass tableware is retailed through franchises under the La Opala brand, handcrafted crystal ware are sold through select exclusive outlets under the Solitaire brand. Company’s USP lies in elegant designs, world class quality, microwave safe, chip resistant and 100% recyclable mark. Notably, company is having good distribution network with approx 50 distributors & 9300 dealers. Apart from having pan India presence company is also exporting to 30 countries across the globe including US, UK, Spain, Belgium, France, Germany, Japan, Dubai etc.

LORL’s manufacturing facility is located at Madhupur in Jharkhand having an installed capacity of 3,500 MT & 1,080 MT for opal ware and crystal ware respectively. In order to meet the growing demand and increase its market share company has recently set up a new unit of opal ware at Sitarganj - Uttrankhand with a capacity of 4,000 MTPA at a cost of Rs. 35 cr. Hence company has more than doubled its opal ware capacity to 7500 MT from 3500 earlier. Apart from being fully automated, this plant uses alternate source of fuel i.e. electricity for heating the furnace instead of LPG & furnace oil which are currently used as fuel in the Jharkhand plant. This would lead to a substantial reduction in the fuel cost. Besides, this new plant also enjoys an exemption of excise duty and income tax for 10 and 5 years respectively. Hence in near future company is contemplating to reduce its capacity utilization at its Jharkhand plant & shift manufacturing to new plant to avail lower fuel cost & tax benefit. However, although company has started commercial production in Sept 2007 at its new facility, but due to certain technological backlog, the plant is yet to operate its full fledge production. Meanwhile, company has started exploring the opportunity of supplying its products to big hotel chains in the country which would further aid the growth of the company. It is also increasing its foucs on exports and target to achieve more than 40% of turnover from overseas markets in coming years.

The current euphoric growth of the Indian economy, the rise in the disposable income, increase usage of credit card, maverick changes in the aspiration and emotional level of the consumers and their changing life style have resulted in increase in market size of company product. And LORL with its established brand name, wide network, high quality and large variety of products is all set to capitalize the opportunity. Financially company is estimated to report bumper result for FY09 on back of improved margins and increased revenue from new plant becoming fully operational in few months. At the same time, on the back of higher interest cost and depreciation cost its FY08 nos look very disappointing. For the Dec qtr its sales increased by 20% to Rs 15 cr but NP stood at 0.01 cr against 1.30 cr last fiscal. But for FY09 it is estimated to clock sales of 75 cr and PAT of Rs 7.50 cr i.e. EPS of Rs 7 on current equity of 10.60 cr. With a gross block of around Rs 55 cr and book value of Rs 35, its a value buy at current EV of approx Rs 50 cr. Still investors are advised to accumulate at declines only as scrip can drift down further to hit new lows.

STOCK WATCH

Numeric Power (725.00) is India’s No 1 manufacturer of uninterrupted power supply (UPS) systems, stabilizers and power conditioners. It also undertakes turnkey projects and offers end to end solution for SCADA/EMS package, large network of industrial process, power transmission support systems and distribution management. For the Dec qtr its sales increased by 45% to Rs 100 cr whereas NP shot up 70% to Rs 10.60 cr thereby posting an highest ever EPS of Rs 21 for the quarter. Last year, company entered into a joint venture with the French UPS major SOCOMEC SA to distribute, market and service the 3 phase range of UPS systems (greater than 10 KVA) products to customers in India. Ironically, around 75% of the ATMs in the country are fitted with UPS supplied by the company. With India's significant power deficits and the ubiquitous outages and voltage fluctuations; company’s products still have significant market potential in the country. For FY08 it may report sales of Rs 375 cr and profit of Rs 38 cr i.e. EPS of 75 Rs on equity of 5.05 cr. Secondly, with an estimated reserve of more than Rs 125 cr on tiny equity of Rs 5 cr, scrips is fuly ripe for liberal bonus as well. A solid bet for medium to long term

Last week, Mazda Ltd (76.00) declared teriffic set of nos for the Dec qtr. It reported 40% rise in sales to Rs 18 cr and Net profit shot up 80% to Rs 2.40 cr posting an EPS of almost Rs 6 for Q3FY08 alone. Hence its nine months profit of Rs 4.90 cr has already surpassed the entire FY07 PAT of Rs 4.70 cr. Importantly, company has a technical collaboration with world renowned Croll-Reynolds Inc. USA, who holds 12% stake in the company. Besides, HSBC is holding 8% stake under FII category. To cater the increasing demand, Mazda is setting up a third unit with an investment of approximately 5 to 6 crores. It is among the few engineering companies in the world, manufacturing very specialized, high technology and critical equipments for various industries like power, refineries, fertilizers, chemicals, nuclear, sugar, paper, food, pharma etc. For FY08 it is expected to clock a turnover of Rs 65 cr and profit of Rs 6.50 cr. This works out to an EPS of whopping Rs 15 on small equity of Rs 4.26 cr. At a modest discounting by 10x times scirp has the potential to touch Rs 150 in a years time. A screaming buy.

Micro Technologies (196.00) is a global provider of security, safety and life-support solutions with its very unique, hi-tech, first of its kind and innovative products like Home Security Micro HSS, Vehicle Security Micro VBB, Lost Mobile Tracking System, Secure-Bank Black Box, Disaster Management System, Intelligent Black Box, Access Control Solution etc which have huge demand world wide. Further, it has launched couple of dynamic products like Office Black Box for office security, Shop Security System for commercial premises and Electric Black Box for power industry. Once again company has reported excellent nos for the Dec qtr as its topline as well as bottomline grew by 65% to Rs 46.60 cr and Rs 14.40 cr respectively. Besides India, company has huge plans for export especially to China, Japan, U.S., Middle East, South Africa and adjoining countries etc. Recently it also got FCC compliance certification which will increase the recognition of all its products in the global market and will enable for it to penetrate global market. Considering all the factors company is estimated to end FY08 with total revenue of Rs 175 cr and profit of Rs 50 cr i.e. EPS of Rs 47 on current equity of Rs 10.75 cr. In near future company is looking to make preferential allotment of 24 lac warrants which take its total diluted equity to around Rs 16~17 cr. At current market cap of around Rs 300 its trading reasonably cheap and can appreciate 50% in a years time.

Bihar Caustic (77.00) - a 51% subsidiary of Hindalco, is among the leading caustic soda producer in the northern and eastern region of the country having an installed capacity of of 225 tonne per day. Notably, BCCL also enjoys the highest operating margins among it peers - even better than Gujarat Alkalies and Chemfab Alkali. It registered 20% increase in sales to Rs 48 cr but net profit jumped up 70% to 16.50 cr posting an impressive EPS of Rs 7 for the qurter. To maintain its growth, company is in process of expanding capacity of its caustic soda plant by 20% to 265 TPD by addition of electrolysers as well by debottlenecking. Secondly, it has also taken a decision for setting up a stable bleaching powder (SBP) plant at an estimated cost of Rs.7.50. But most importantly, company has commissioned an aluminium chloride project with a capacity of 12000 TPA which is giving a good fillip to its topline as well as bottomline. For FY08 it is estimated to clock a turnover of 185 cr and profit of 50 cr which leads to an EPS of 21 Rs on equity of 23.40 cr. Fundamentally, the scrip can move upto Rs 120 in a years time.

Friday, February 1, 2008

Small & Beautiful (Guj)

ABM Knowledgeware (48.00) offers solutions for e-governance and systems integration apart from having in-depth domain expertise in computerisation of secretariats, municipal corporations, citizen services, land records, utility billing & revenue administration. Notably company has made a strong turnaround from this fiscal with its operating margin registering a sharp jump to 38% compare to 125 last fiscal. For the Dec qtr, although its topline grew marginally to Rs 7 cr, but NP zoomed up 500% to Rs 1.75 cr. It has already posted an EPS of Rs 5 for the first nine months. For future growth company is developing Strategic Business Units (SBU) focused on revenue earning areas, like urban administration, utility and ERP by inducting experienced professionals and laying down quality processes. It may report an total revenue of around Rs 28~30 cr and net profit of Rs 7 cr for FY08 which translates into EPS of Rs 7 on equity of Rs 10 cr. Accumulate at declines.

Ind Swift Lab (57.00) has once again announced decent set of nos for Dec qtr. Sales improved by 20% to Rs 114 cr and NP increased by 30% to Rs 7.25 cr. It has already received the USFDA approval for its API manufacturing facility at Derabassi Punjab for Clarithromycin. For other API’s, FDA inspection is expected to be done shortly. Presently, exports constitute around 45% of sales with company having presence in 45-50 countries - principally European countries, Asian countries, Latin American countries and Middle East. For future growth the company has a robust product pipeline of 25 products which includes blockbuster drugs as well. It has successfully filed over 72 DMFs with the US, Canadian, UK and European Drug Authorities. Hence company has been aggressively expanding its capacity and has quadrupled its Gross Block to nearly Rs 400 cr from Rs 100 cr two years back. Considering the robust nine month nos, it may end FY08 with sales of Rs 450 cr and PAT of Rs 25 cr. This translates into EPS of Rs 10 on current equity of around Rs 24 cr. Few days back company further issued 25 lakh warrants to be converted @ Rs 70 per share. Post all conversions its diluted equity may be around Rs 27.75 cr. With a book value of whopping 93 Rs and expected CEPS of 16~17 Rs, scrip is trading extremely cheap at a P/E ratio of merely 6x times. A screaming buy at is has the potential to double in 12~15 months.

Post its Dec results share price of Kamanwala Housing (128.00) has tumbled down sharply as they don’t look so encouraging when compared to Dec’06 nos. Its revenue declined by massive 75% to Rs 16.50 cr whereas profit declined by only 20% to Rs 5 cr. But being in the real estate & construction sector and following the revenue model on sale of agreement basis, company is bound to post erratic and lumpy results on quarterly basis. Hence the picture changes for the combine nine months figures. Till now in this fiscal, it reported flat revenues to the tune of Rs 67.50 cr but profit shot up 80% to Rs 15 cr on the back of rising real estate prices. Company is mainly operating in Mumbai and has few good residential projects in Malad & Santacruz and huge commercial project in Bandra Kurla complex. It has several projects lined up for future in Andheri, Mahim, Goregaon etc and even in Hydrabad. Recently it also bought 10,000 sq mtr land in Turbhe for 15 cr. It is also merging its 52% subsidiary company called “M/S. Doongursee Diamond Tools Ltd” which actually holds 1 lakh FSI for its Malad project. To sum up, company is available fairly cheap at a market cap of around 70 cr. It can easily appreciate 50% from hereon.

Cosmo Films (110.00) is the pioneer and one of the largest manufacturers of Bi-axially Oriented Polypropylene Films (BOPP) in India with an installed capacity of 77,000 MTPA. It also manufactures thermal lamination film, an export focused product, which has higher margins. For the Dec qtr its sales improved marginally to Rs 147 cr but PAT shot up by 170% to Rs 11.60 cr on back of back of better operating efficiency. To maintain its future growth company is expanding its capacity by adding two BOPP lines of 40000 MT each. The first line is expected to be commissioned before March, 2009 for which orders have been placed for all major equipments. In addition, it is also adding two new lines in thermal lamination and increasing its capacity from 13500 to 19500 MT per annum. To fund all these it recently placed 31 lakh warrants to be converted @ Rs 107 per share. It has also taken the approval for issue of 10 lakh equity shares under ESOP. For FY08 it is estimated to clock a turnover of Rs 600 cr and PAT of Rs 40 cr i.e. EPS of Rs 20.50 on current equity of 19.40 cr. At a modest discounting by 7x times scrip can touch Rs 150 in 6~9 months.

Smart Investment (Guj)

Ansal Housing & Construction Ltd


Royal Orchid Hotels Ltd