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!!! W E L C O M E !!!
In INDIA, people generally relate to stock market as “EASY MONEY” or “SATTA BAZAAR”. For them it’s purely a GAME or matter of sheer LUCK and nothing more than that. But seldom do they know, by following certain PRINCIPLES and taking INFORMED decision, this same platform has the power to take them from rags to riches. No doubt, it has a certain amount of RISK attached to it. But every business or investment has it. What more, the Finance Ministry has already made the long term capital gain as TAX FREE whereas the short term capital gain is taxed at merely 10%. On the economic front, India’s GDP is growing and is expected to grow at scorching pace of more than 8%. Unfortunately, even today our market is being ruled and dominated by FIRANGI’s money. But I can see, the day is not far when our general PUBLIC will change its perception and start putting MOST of their savings in equities as an ** Investment **.
Remember, "K N O W L E D G E" and "P A T I E N C E" are the key to success.
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SAARTHI

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Friday, February 1, 2008

Small & Beautiful (Guj)

ABM Knowledgeware (48.00) offers solutions for e-governance and systems integration apart from having in-depth domain expertise in computerisation of secretariats, municipal corporations, citizen services, land records, utility billing & revenue administration. Notably company has made a strong turnaround from this fiscal with its operating margin registering a sharp jump to 38% compare to 125 last fiscal. For the Dec qtr, although its topline grew marginally to Rs 7 cr, but NP zoomed up 500% to Rs 1.75 cr. It has already posted an EPS of Rs 5 for the first nine months. For future growth company is developing Strategic Business Units (SBU) focused on revenue earning areas, like urban administration, utility and ERP by inducting experienced professionals and laying down quality processes. It may report an total revenue of around Rs 28~30 cr and net profit of Rs 7 cr for FY08 which translates into EPS of Rs 7 on equity of Rs 10 cr. Accumulate at declines.

Ind Swift Lab (57.00) has once again announced decent set of nos for Dec qtr. Sales improved by 20% to Rs 114 cr and NP increased by 30% to Rs 7.25 cr. It has already received the USFDA approval for its API manufacturing facility at Derabassi Punjab for Clarithromycin. For other API’s, FDA inspection is expected to be done shortly. Presently, exports constitute around 45% of sales with company having presence in 45-50 countries - principally European countries, Asian countries, Latin American countries and Middle East. For future growth the company has a robust product pipeline of 25 products which includes blockbuster drugs as well. It has successfully filed over 72 DMFs with the US, Canadian, UK and European Drug Authorities. Hence company has been aggressively expanding its capacity and has quadrupled its Gross Block to nearly Rs 400 cr from Rs 100 cr two years back. Considering the robust nine month nos, it may end FY08 with sales of Rs 450 cr and PAT of Rs 25 cr. This translates into EPS of Rs 10 on current equity of around Rs 24 cr. Few days back company further issued 25 lakh warrants to be converted @ Rs 70 per share. Post all conversions its diluted equity may be around Rs 27.75 cr. With a book value of whopping 93 Rs and expected CEPS of 16~17 Rs, scrip is trading extremely cheap at a P/E ratio of merely 6x times. A screaming buy at is has the potential to double in 12~15 months.

Post its Dec results share price of Kamanwala Housing (128.00) has tumbled down sharply as they don’t look so encouraging when compared to Dec’06 nos. Its revenue declined by massive 75% to Rs 16.50 cr whereas profit declined by only 20% to Rs 5 cr. But being in the real estate & construction sector and following the revenue model on sale of agreement basis, company is bound to post erratic and lumpy results on quarterly basis. Hence the picture changes for the combine nine months figures. Till now in this fiscal, it reported flat revenues to the tune of Rs 67.50 cr but profit shot up 80% to Rs 15 cr on the back of rising real estate prices. Company is mainly operating in Mumbai and has few good residential projects in Malad & Santacruz and huge commercial project in Bandra Kurla complex. It has several projects lined up for future in Andheri, Mahim, Goregaon etc and even in Hydrabad. Recently it also bought 10,000 sq mtr land in Turbhe for 15 cr. It is also merging its 52% subsidiary company called “M/S. Doongursee Diamond Tools Ltd” which actually holds 1 lakh FSI for its Malad project. To sum up, company is available fairly cheap at a market cap of around 70 cr. It can easily appreciate 50% from hereon.

Cosmo Films (110.00) is the pioneer and one of the largest manufacturers of Bi-axially Oriented Polypropylene Films (BOPP) in India with an installed capacity of 77,000 MTPA. It also manufactures thermal lamination film, an export focused product, which has higher margins. For the Dec qtr its sales improved marginally to Rs 147 cr but PAT shot up by 170% to Rs 11.60 cr on back of back of better operating efficiency. To maintain its future growth company is expanding its capacity by adding two BOPP lines of 40000 MT each. The first line is expected to be commissioned before March, 2009 for which orders have been placed for all major equipments. In addition, it is also adding two new lines in thermal lamination and increasing its capacity from 13500 to 19500 MT per annum. To fund all these it recently placed 31 lakh warrants to be converted @ Rs 107 per share. It has also taken the approval for issue of 10 lakh equity shares under ESOP. For FY08 it is estimated to clock a turnover of Rs 600 cr and PAT of Rs 40 cr i.e. EPS of Rs 20.50 on current equity of 19.40 cr. At a modest discounting by 7x times scrip can touch Rs 150 in 6~9 months.

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